Expert base, precious and ferrous metal insights
We produce two regular metal outlook reports. Our daily base metals analysis concentrates on the daily LME trading activity and any macroeconomic impacts and trends. Our benchmark Quarterly Metals Report provides an in-depth analysis of the base, precious, and ferrous metal markets and includes our outlook per metal for the months ahead.
Our metal market outlook reports leverage our expertise and position within the metals markets. As a Category 1 member of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and as a member of COMEX and the London Bullion Market Association, we execute and clear a significant proportion of market activity.
Quarterly Metals Report
Our quarterly metals report provides expert analysis and price forecasts for base, precious and ferrous metals, providing metal industry participants with actionable insights.
This in-depth report includes reviews of the macroeconomic environment and outlook for the global economy, central bank activity, analysis of manufacturing PMIs and geo-political influences.
Report highlights are also presented at our quarterly metal market webinars by our research team and an expert from our industrial commodities team, providing broker insights.
The rally we saw in the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, and sentiment deteriorated since, especially in early May. Strong momentum out of China is absent, but recovery out of the region is underway, with services continuing to outperform. Downstream activity improved amid traditional peak season, but buyers have mostly purchased on the dip as needed. The demand outlook continues to struggle, with end-users showing continued softness in the goods’ sales. While this should lead to further easing in the supply chain issues we have witnessed in the last couple of years, looming recessionary fears are weighing on our demand outlook. With the key central banks ending their monetary policy tightening cycle, the focus is poised to shift away from inflation-centric data to fundamentals, such as economic growth and consumer performance. The historically weaker dollar should provide robust support for metals, but with the lack of a strong incentive, we struggle to see base metals significantly higher in Q2 2023.
The rally we saw in Q4 2022 and the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, as China's re-opening has not triggered a large increase in consumption and is a services play, as well as the Fed remaining hawkish on rates. The dollar has firmed, causing metals to weaken, highlighting the fragility of the move higher. Spreads are in contango, Chinese prices are mostly in discount, and weaker premiums suggest a cautious market. A soft landing in the U.S., would boost sentiment, but fundamentally Chinese demand needs to return to sustain a meaningful rally. We believe stimulus measures in China are likely to be targeted at services and the consumer, capping consumption. Markets are macro-focused at the moment, and with the near-term outlook uncertain, upside moves are unlikely to be sustained until demand returns in a meaningful way.
Daily Base Metals Analysis
Our daily base metals reports summarise the day's trading activity for the LME and other key base metal markets. In addition, we provide an overview of the day's significant macroeconomic trends, including relevant energy and precious metals commentary. The report also incorporates base metals pricing data, including LME closing prices.
For longer-term analysis and outlooks, our research team also produce our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals.
Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.
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