Perspectives

The first half of 2026 was dominated by geopolitical risk, inflation concerns and shifting monetary policy expectations. As we move into H2, many of those themes remain relevant, but the market focus has become more nuanced. Investors are no longer reacting to events themselves, but to the way they influence energy prices, inflation, and ultimately policy expectations. The result is an increasingly uneven backdrop across commodity markets. Across base metals, this has produced a more selective environment in which individual supply-demand dynamics, positioning and sector-specific demand trends are playing a larger role in price formation than broad macro sentiment alone.

This report provides a concise morning update with fundamental and technical analysis and commentary for USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY currency pairs.

Technical analysis for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.

The lira has been on a relentless downward path in 2025, shedding almost 15% since the start of the year. With US rates still dominating global flows, can Turkey’s improving fundamentals and easing inflation narrative stabilise USDTRY in the months ahead?

A larger Brazilian crop is coming, but the market is not about to be flooded overnight. Our H2 2026 outlook explains why nearby supply remains constrained, what it will take for the balance to ease, and which risks still matter most.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the EV market, with a particular focus being on supply chain analysis through mining, battery cell production, and sales of EVs. Additionally, we examine the implications of EV-specific tariffs, assessing their impact on cross-border trade, manufacturing costs, and company competitiveness.