Quarterly Metals Report
In-depth analysis and price forecasts for base, precious and ferrous metals
Our quarterly metals report provides expert analysis and price forecasts for base, precious and ferrous metals, providing metal industry participants with actionable insights.
This in-depth report includes reviews of the macroeconomic environment and outlook for the global economy, central bank activity, analysis of manufacturing PMIs and geo-political influences.
Report highlights are also presented at our quarterly metal market webinars by our research team and an expert from our industrial commodities team, providing broker insights.
Quarterly Metals Report – Q1 2023
The rally we saw in Q4 2022 and the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, as China's re-opening has not triggered a large increase in consumption and is a services play, as well as the Fed remaining hawkish on rates. The dollar has firmed, causing metals to weaken, highlighting the fragility of the move higher. Spreads are in contango, Chinese prices are mostly in discount, and weaker premiums suggest a cautious market. A soft landing in the U.S., would boost sentiment, but fundamentally Chinese demand needs to return to sustain a meaningful rally. We believe stimulus measures in China are likely to be targeted at services and the consumer, capping consumption. Markets are macro-focused at the moment, and with the near-term outlook uncertain, upside moves are unlikely to be sustained until demand returns in a meaningful way.
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