Foreign Exchange

This month, we are focusing on the US economy, which is currently facing a number of political and macroeconomic risks as we head into the last quarter of the year. The dollar, which had maintained its strength for the majority of the year, experienced a rapid sell-off due to a shift in market sentiment as bets on the Fed's first interest rate cut in September accelerated. With the Fed meeting in September and the upcoming US Elections, what is our outlook for the dollar in the coming months?

As we head into Q3 2024, the markets are dealing with a different reality than what was initially expected at the beginning of the year. With Biden stepping out of the US Presidential Race, all eyes are likely to stay focused on the US until November. Additionally, there is a growing case for an increasing number of interest rate cuts this year, with major banks expected to start the cutting cycle by the end of this quarter. While this should help alleviate some of the pressures felt by the commodity space, China's muted economic performance is weighing on the base metals’ narrative. From September onward, we expect macroeconomic factors to relieve some of the pressures on the commodity market, leading to a modest increase in the latter part of Q3. We expect Q4 to bring greater market volatility.

Read our coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, and coffee market forecasts to take advantage of market movements. The coffee industry has experienced significant volatility in recent months, breaking out of the stagnant price ranges observed since October. Although we believe the underlying market fundamentals have not changed drastically, shifting market perceptions concerning the supply side tightness have driven recent price rallies. Broader volatility in the softs market is also adding to coffee price volatility.

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.