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Daily Base Metals Report

Volatility Persists Despite Softer Inflation

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Inflation cooled more than expected, but outlook remains clouded by tariff risks
  • Base metals remained elevated following a rally after yesterday's tariff reversal.
  • Gold climbed as markets sought shelter from policy uncertainty

Macro

US stocks opened lower today, paring back some of Wednesday’s gains that followed Trump’s surprise delay to reciprocal tariffs. Inflation data came in softer than expected, with headline CPI falling from 2.8% to 2.4% YoY in March, while core inflation dropped from 3.1% to 2.8%. The decline—driven by lower fuel and used vehicle prices—marked the first monthly drop in consumer prices in nearly five years. However, markets remain cautious, as the improvement may prove short-lived. With Trump doubling down on tariffs targeting Chinese imports, the threat of renewed inflation and recessionary pressures lingers. This backdrop has led markets to increasingly price in a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle from the Fed, with expectations now leaning toward as much as 100bps of easing by year-end. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield held firm around 4.3%, reflecting continued investor uncertainty.

Base Metals

Base metals rallied after the market settled yesterday, following the announcement that the Trump administration will pause tariffs for 90 days on most economies and reduce the tariff rate to 10% for those that were targeted with higher rates. China remains the only exception, facing a significant tariff of 125%. Despite this, the metals complex showed resilience today, maintaining its position above yesterday's highs, which indicates a moderate level of confidence that is not reflected in the equity markets. Copper fluctuated around the $9,000/t mark, holding slightly below it to close at $8,988/t. 

The rest of the complex followed suit. Aluminium opened higher but struggled above the $2,400/t mark, resulting in prices gaining a moderate upside to $2,370/t. While aluminium typically tracks the movements of copper, we anticipate that its price increase will be less pronounced than that of copper due to a more abundant supply outlook bolstered by ongoing expansions in alumina capacity. Lead and zinc edged higher to $1,892/t and $2,641/t, respectively. Nickel jumped above the $14,500/t resistance to $14,798/t.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold rose back towards record highs, trading at $3,150/oz as safe-haven demand remained elevated amid unpredictable trade policy signals. Silver was broadly steady, hovering around the $31.0/oz mark. Oil prices softened after Wednesday’s rebound, with WTI and Brent at $59.5/bbl and $62.7/bbl respectively.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 10042025

All price data is from 10.04.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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