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Daily Base Metals Report

Trade Uncertainty Lingers Despite China's Openness to Talks

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US stocks weakened on the back of waning tech optimism. 
  • Despite China’s willingness to initiate trade talks with the US, base metals’ trading remained thin.
  • Gold continues to post new highs amid economic and trade uncertainty.

Macro

US stocks gapped lower on the open as yesterday's tech optimism faded amidst new restrictions imposed by the Trump administration on Nvidia Corp.’s chip exports to China, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions between the two nations. Meanwhile, China has indicated that it is open to initiating trade talks, contingent upon key favourable actions from the Trump administration. Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a speech, which may help clarify the central bank's strategy in light of this trade volatility. However, the absence of significant economic data may limit Powell’s narrative strength, as policymakers are still unable to fully assess the longer-term implications. Despite this, forward swaps are currently pricing in more than three interest rate cuts from the Fed this year. From a macroeconomic standpoint, US retail sales grew by 1.4%, the largest increase in two years. However, since this figure reflects March's performance, it has largely been discounted by the markets in terms of its impact on the broader sentiment today. The dollar remained just below the 100 mark, trading at 99.56, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held steady at 4.33%.

Base Metals

In the base metals market, trading remained thin, with prices largely stable due to a lack of fundamental drivers and speculative interest, resulting in minor fluctuations across the board. Nickel remains the only exception, continuing to gain momentum to its fair value range, closing at $15,683/t. Elsewhere, aluminium and copper held around the $2,370/t at $9,100/t support levels, respectively. Lead and zinc held steady at $1,908/t and $2,582/t.

Precious Metals and Oil

Precious metals continued to attract attention amid ongoing economic and trade uncertainties that drive investors toward safe havens. Gold reached new heights, surpassing the $3,300/oz mark, while silver strengthened to $32.50/oz. Oil futures remain closely tied to the fundamental demand landscape, with China's willingness to engage in talks with the U.S. under favourable bilateral terms prompting WTI and Brent prices to rise to $62/bbl and $65/bbl, respectively.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 16042025

All price data is from 16.04.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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