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Daily Base Metals Report

Failure to Break Resistance Triggers Base Metals Pullback

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US GDP contraction due to import surge ahead of new tariffs
  • Base metals corrected as investors reduced exposure ahead of the upcoming Chinese holidays. 
  • Gold steady near $3,300/oz amid weaker data and ongoing uncertainty

Macro

US stocks opened lower on Wednesday after a string of disappointing economic data releases. The Q1 GDP print surprised sharply to the downside, showing a contraction of 0.3% QoQ —well below expectations and a significant drop from 2.4% growth in Q4 2024. The decline was largely driven by a surge in pre-emptive imports, as US companies scrambled to bring in goods ahead of President Trump’s tariff measures. This led to a sharp widening of the trade deficit, with imports rising at an annualised pace of over 40%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, came in marginally above expectations at 2.3% YoY in March. However, given its backward-looking nature, the data does not yet reflect the inflationary impact of the tariff regime, limiting its relevance for forward-looking rate expectations. The dollar index edged modestly higher but remained subdued, trading just below 99.5. The 10-year US Treasury yield initially spiked on the release but quickly reversed, settling back around 4.16%.

Base Metals

Base metals weakened today as the market struggled to break through near-term resistance levels tested over the past few days, prompting traders to liquidate their positions into the Chinese holidays, which begin tomorrow. Copper has been the key driver for the entire complex, with prices declining by around $300/t in a single day, bringing copper down to test the $9,100/t support, holding slightly above it at $9,161/t by the end of the day. 

The rest of the complex followed suit, with aluminium also weakening, though managing to hold firm at the $2,400/t support level, with its recent underperformance versus copper limiting its exposure to a sharp correction. The same pattern is seen with lead and zinc, both of which finished the day just above the near-term support levels of $1,950/t and $2,580/t, respectively.  

Precious Metals and Oil 

Gold remained broadly stable, hovering around the $3,300/oz mark, supported by lingering uncertainty and continued investor caution. Silver eased slightly, slipping to $32.6/oz. Oil prices extended their recent slide, with WTI falling below $60/bbl and Brent retreating to $63.3/bbl.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 30042025

All price data is from 30.04.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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