Summary
- UK growth surprises to the upside; eurozone momentum fades on revised data.
- Base metals edged lower as recent gains show signs of fading.
- Gold climbs back above $3,200/oz.
Macro
US equities opened lower on Thursday, as the data calendar delivered a mixed global picture. April PPI inflation came in softer than expected at 2.4% YoY, down from 2.5%, with core PPI also moderating. The data suggest that, for now, suppliers are absorbing the impact of tariffs rather than passing costs on to buyers. This dynamic may not hold, and the underlying inflation structure is likely to remain volatile in the months ahead as trade adjustments ripple through the system. The dollar index edged slightly lower to just below 101.0, as gains in the euro and pound outweighed yen continued weakness. US Treasury yields softened, with the 10-year easing to 4.47%, following a brief spike earlier in the week. In the UK, Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, growing 0.7%—the strongest pace in a year—driven by services, investment, and a 3.5% rise in export volumes, particularly to the US. The rebound snapped three straight quarters of export declines. Meanwhile, eurozone Q1 growth was revised down to 0.3%, reflecting a softer start to the year than initially thought. Much of the industrial strength was front-loaded by US buyers accelerating orders ahead of tariff deadlines, rather than broad-based improvement.
Base Metals
Base metals edged lower today, as recent gains appear to be losing momentum. Aluminium slipped back below the $2,500/t threshold, weakening to $2,489/t. Copper opened lower, briefly dipping below the key $9,500/t support before quickly rebounding to $9,577/t. Lead remained under pressure, staying below the $2,000/t mark, while zinc softened but kept the $2,700/t support intact, closing the day at $2,724.50/t.
Precious Metals and Oil
Gold rebounded from early losses, rising back above $3,200/oz after touching $3,120/oz in early trade. Silver also regained ground, ending near $32.30/oz. Oil prices drifted lower, with WTI and Brent at $61.5/bbl and $64.4/bbl, as demand-side concerns capped gains.
All price data is from 15.05.2025 as of 17:30