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Daily Base Metals Report

Easing Geopolitics Provide Market Boost

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Ceasefire headlines eased geopolitical risk, sending US stocks higher
  • Base metals adjusted to return to their respective ranges, with copper spreads weakening sharply today, suggesting a weaker underlying price support. 
  • Risk-on flows weighed on haven assets, with gold near $3,300/oz

Macro

US equities opened higher as markets welcomed news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, despite early reports of violations by both sides. Hopes of a lasting de-escalation helped temper fears of prolonged oil supply disruptions and inflationary spillovers, supporting a further unwind of risk premiums. Lower inflation expectations have firmed bets on monetary easing, with Fed swaps now pricing nearly an 80% chance of a 25bp cut in September.

US consumer sentiment took a hit, however, with the Conference Board’s Confidence Index falling from 98.4 to 93.0 in June — one of the weakest readings in recent years — pointing to growing caution among households amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The dollar slipped below the 98.0 mark, while the 10-year US Treasury yield declined toward 4.3%.

Base Metals

Mixed moves were seen across the base metals complex as the metals adjusted to offset yesterday's gains and losses, returning to their respective ranges. In particular, the copper spreads softened today, with the cash to 3-month spread weakening back to $98/t, suggesting a weaker underlying support for futures prices. In the meantime, copper is maintaining its recent range intact, closing at $9,669/t. Aluminium remained below the $2,600/t mark but held support at $2,550/t, prompting it to remain at $2,579/t. Lead surpassed its strong resistance level of $2,010/t, rising to $2,019/t - marking a March 2025 high. This breakthrough may suggest a shift in technical momentum to a more positive outlook. Zinc, however, remained below $2,700/t.

Precious Metals & Oil

A shift to risk-on positioning weighed on precious metals. Gold dropped toward $3,300/oz, while silver slipped below key support to trade at $35.50/oz. Oil prices also retreated as supply fears eased, with WTI and Brent last seen at $63.30/bbl and $68.20/bbl, respectively.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 24062025

All price data is from 24.06.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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