Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Dollar Drops as Equities, Metals Climb

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US GDP revision to -0.5% boosted Fed cut expectations.
  • Base metals rallied, led by copper as inventory tightness manifested in widening spreads, driving prices back toward April highs.
  • Gold slipped, silver held firm, oil edged higher.

Macro

US equities opened higher on Thursday, showing resilience despite confirmation of a deeper-than-expected economic contraction in Q1 2025. According to the final estimate, US GDP shrank at an annualised rate of 0.5% in Q1, down from the previously reported 0.2% decline. The revision was largely driven by a downgrade in consumer spending, now seen rising just 0.5% QoQ compared with the initial estimate of 1.2%. The weaker data reflect the growing toll of aggressive US import tariffs, which have distorted price signals and curtailed household demand. This, along with the news that President Donald Trump is thinking about replacing Fed Chair Powell ahead of schedule, has increased market expectations for monetary easing. Investors are now estimating a greater than 20% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July and a 90% chance for September.

Labour market data pointed to an emerging trend with rising number of people choosing to stay out of the labour force longer, as continuing application for unemployment benefits rose to 1.974m, the highest since November 2021. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to 236,000. The dollar continued to retreat against major currencies, with the index dropping to 97.2 - its lowest level since early 2023. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield slipping to 4.26%.

Base Metals

Base metals prices rallied sharply today, driven primarily by copper, which jumped above the $9,805/t mark to $9,899/t – a high not seen since early April. Copper spreads have widened once again, with the cash to 3-month rising to $230/t, while the Tom-Next has reached a multi-year high of $98/t. Ongoing shipments of material from international warehouses into US COMEX are tightening availability in other regions, intensifying stress on global supply. Indeed, the COMEX/LME arb has widened once again, surpassing $1,500/mt, driven by continued exchange deliveries amid mounting expectations of US copper tariffs.

The rest of the complex followed suit: aluminium edged higher but remained capped by the $2,600/t resistance. Lead and zinc both firmed, with zinc showing signs of a potential breakout. However, for a clear change toward bullish momentum, prices must first break above the key resistance level of $2,786/t to confirm a change in narrative. Nickel and tin strengthened to $15,209/t and $33,749/t, respectively. 

Precious Metals and Oil

Precious metals were mixed. Gold edged slightly lower to $3,319/oz as investor appetite tilted back toward risk assets. In contrast, silver extended its rebound, climbing above the $36.00/oz mark and holding firm despite the stronger tone in equities. Oil prices also moved higher. At the time of writing, WTI traded at $66.10/bbl, while Brent stood at $68.70/bbl.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 26062025

All price data is from 26.06.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields