The rally we saw in Q4 2022 and the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, as China's re-opening has not triggered a large increase in consumption and is a services play, as well as the Fed remaining hawkish on rates. The dollar has firmed, causing metals to weaken, highlighting the fragility of the move higher. Spreads are in contango, Chinese prices are mostly in discount, and weaker premiums suggest a cautious market. A soft landing in the U.S., would boost sentiment, but fundamentally Chinese demand needs to return to sustain a meaningful rally. We believe stimulus measures in China are likely to be targeted at services and the consumer, capping consumption. Markets are macro-focused at the moment, and with the near-term outlook uncertain, upside moves are unlikely to be sustained until demand returns in a meaningful way.

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. This month we look at economic activity in Scandinavia, focusing on Sweden and Norway. The USD has firmed in recent weeks as the Fed became more hawkish, what does this mean for SEK, and NOK? 

China held the National People’s Congress in early March, drawing thousands of delegates to the biggest reshuffle of China’s economic policy team. In this note, we look at the impact of the latest NPC meeting to help gauge the mark of new policies on longer-term economic prospects from the region.

Read our short coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, and coffee market forecasts to take advantage of market movements. Since our last October report, the trend has changed, and we saw coffee prices strengthen, and the weather is now our main concern. In this coffee crop update, we assess the development of macroeconomic and consumer habit factors and provide our crop number estimates to help gauge the coffee price outlook.

Our analysts provide an insight into the Electric Vehicle and Battery Material Market. They give an update on how the energy industries in major regions are transitioning towards renewable alternatives, new policies to support EV sales, and a fundamental outlook for Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium. Supply-chain bottlenecks and strong EV consumption have meant a sharp increase in the prices of materials and chemicals. Will this continue?

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. This week’s focus is on GBPNZD and the currency outlook given the central banks' monetary decisions that took place this week. 

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.