In the previous quarter, expectations shifted from a pause in the central bank tightening cycle to further rate increases in July and potentially later in Q4 2023. As we move away from central bank-centric rhetoric, economic growth and consumer performance will be key in driving the risk sentiment across the board. Still, China's stimulus outlook remains critical to the longer-term narrative for metals this quarter. Sentiment has been improving as signs emerged that regulators are working to follow through on the promises made at the most recent Politburo meeting. However, markets remain cautious about the scale of support, and any positive news seems short-lived. As a result, the positive stimulus is more likely to solidify support levels than boost bullish sentiment in the near term.

Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. As Beijing continued to boost confidence in the market through stimulus support, particularly through a property boost, stocks in Asia continued to sour. Markets whipsawed in anticipation of policy from the July Politburo meeting, but the optimism reversed rapidly as the pro-growth messaging failed to deliver swift and forceful actions. Cheaper valuations and expectations of more stimulus are giving investors reasons to be optimistic again, and in this report, we look at both the HKD and CNY currency pairs to assess the impact of most recent government decisions to prop up Chinese economic performance.

Read our short coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, and coffee market forecasts to take advantage of market movements. Since our last report in March 2023, coffee prices have remained broadly unchanged, above 170cts/lb, but the story remains centred around Brazil. Certified stocks have seen a considerable decline, further drawing down on available inventory from the region. While this should have been supportive of higher prices, futures have remained broadly unchanged. As we head into the harvesting period for Arabica, we begin to assess the outlook for the 23/24 crop in this report.

Our analysts provide an insight into the Electric Vehicle and Battery Material Market. They give an update on how the energy industries in major regions are transitioning towards renewable alternatives, new policies to support EV sales, and a fundamental outlook for Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium. Supply-chain bottlenecks and strong EV consumption have meant a sharp increase in the prices of materials and chemicals. Will this continue?

Our daily commentary, covering market news and closing prices of LME aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, iron ore, steel, and precious metals.

Our FX Options Report contains commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning. Silver has traded range bound in recent months, following gold prices, on the back of fluctuating US Treasury yields as the markets tried to predict the path of the Fed’s monetary policy. Given a pause in monetary tightening at the central bank’s meeting last Wednesday, what’s the outlook for silver in the coming months? 

Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.