EUR / USD
EURUSD exhibited a steady upward trajectory, climbing from 1.162 to 1.169, with peak trading activity occurring during the mid-afternoon hours when the pair touched 1.172. On the trade front, the EU is preparing broader retaliatory measures should ongoing negotiations with Washington fail to produce an agreement ahead of the 1 August tariff deadline. While Brussels has signalled a willingness to accept an uneven deal to break the current impasse, several member states, including Germany, are pushing for stronger leverage. Options under discussion include curbs on US services access and restrictions on public procurement bids.
Technical indicators reveal the currency pair trading above all major moving averages, with the 100-day SMA at 1.13 providing substantial long-term support, while the 20-day SMA around 1.17 is forming a significant resistance zone. The RSI reading of 57 suggests moderate bullish momentum, though not yet approaching overbought conditions.
A bullish scenario could see the pair breaking above the recent high of 1.181 if economic data supports further ECB hawkishness, while a bearish case might unfold with a retreat toward the 50-day SMA at 1.16 if risk sentiment deteriorates or the Federal Reserve maintains its aggressive stance.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY exhibited bearish momentum, declining from 148 to 147.27, with significant selling pressure emerging during the European session that pushed prices below key support at 147.90. The yen climbed following Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba statement that he would carry on as leader despite the ruling coalition losing its majority in the upper house election, with markets unwinding risks as the result.
The pair found temporary stability near the 50-day moving average at 145.18, while remaining well below the 200-day moving average at 149.09, suggesting a weakening long-term uptrend. Trading volume peaked during the mid-day hours as prices tested the 147.40 region, with 145.93 serving as a potential downside target.
A bearish case would see the pair breaking below the 50-day moving average, potentially testing support at 145.84 in the near term.
GBP / USD
GBP/USD demonstrates notable strength, underpinned by the dollar weakness and sustained institutional trading activity from major players.
Technical analysis reveals a positive momentum with the pair trading above crucial moving averages, particularly the 100-day MA at 1.33, while encountering resistance at the 50-day moving average of 1.35. The currency pair's upward trajectory from 1.341 to 1.349, accompanied by above-average trading volumes during the European session, suggests robust institutional participation and underlying confidence in sterling.
These factors create a supportive environment for potential further gains in the GBP/USD pair, with immediate resistance at 1.365 and support at 1.338.
