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Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Brace as Tariff Clock Ticks Down

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Tariff tensions escalate.
  • Copper reroutes ease supply tightness.
  • Silver market dislocation grows.

Macro

US equities opened mixed on Monday as rising geopolitical risk weighed on sentiment. Investors reacted to fresh US tariff announcements expected to take effect on 1 August, including levies on Canada (35%), Brazil (50%), the EU (30%), and a steep 50% duty on copper imports. The renewed protectionist stance lifted the dollar toward 98.00 and reintroduced volatility across select trade-exposed assets.
In China, trade data for June surprised to the upside, with exports rebounding sharply as companies rushed shipments to the US and other markets ahead of the anticipated reinstatement of higher US tariffs set for 12 August. Exports to the US rose markedly on a month-on-month basis, benefitting from a fragile truce, while outbound flows to Southeast Asia also strengthened. Imports stabilised modestly, and China’s trade surplus widened to $114.7 billion. Market focus now turns to tomorrow’s Q2 GDP release, expected to reflect softer domestic momentum.

Base Metals 

The base metals complex came under renewed pressure as the tariff-driven copper rerouting fundamentally altered the short-term balance. Physical tightness has sharply eased, with undelivered US-bound material redirected into the LME system. Spreads have responded accordingly: the cash-to-Dec structure flipped into a $60 contango, unwinding the backwardation seen in recent weeks. LME copper dropped to $9619/t as the tightness narrative fades.

Aluminium dipped below $2,600/t to close at $2,592/t, while zinc and lead edged lower to $2,730/t and $2003/t respectively. Nickel retreated again toward the psychologically important $15,000/t level – often cited as a marginal cost threshold – reflecting broader caution across the complex.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold softened slightly to trade just below $3,350/oz, drifting after last week’s gains. Silver, however, continues to attract attention amid a renewed dislocation between COMEX and OTC markets. EFPs have widened sharply, and COMEX is now trading at a big premium to loco London, mirroring conditions seen earlier this year during the inauguration period. Though the outright price remains stable, liquidity risk is migrating back into the US delivery market. Silver tested $39/oz before retreating to $38.40/oz.
Oil prices eased, with WTI last seen at $67.60/bbl and Brent at $69.70/bbl, as markets absorbed shifting macro signals and elevated geopolitical noise.

All price data is from 14.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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