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Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Rebound, But Data and Trade Risks Linger

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US stocks opened higher as investors shrugged off tariff concerns.
  • Weak US factory and durable goods orders highlighted trade-related headwinds ahead of Tuesday’s trade balance data.
  • LME metals saw muted activity amid seasonal slowdown.

Macro:
US equity markets opened firmer on Monday, clawing back part of last week’s tariff-driven losses. Markets moved past President Trump’s tariffs due to take effect on Wednesday. Instead, investors concentrated on picking up perceived bargains in technology and industrial shares. Incoming data offered little encouragement: June factory orders fell 4.8%, while durable goods orders dropped 9.4%, underscoring the growing drag from trade uncertainty. Attention now turns to Tuesday’s US trade balance release for further clues on external demand. The dollar index edged up to 98.8 and the 10-year US Treasury yield steadied near 4.22%.

Base Metals
LME prices were mixed in typically thin early-August trade, a period that often sees smelter maintenance and slower physical activity. Copper firmed to $9,678/t after last week’s sell-off but lacked follow-through. Aluminium slipped to $2,564/t, extending its pull-back from last month’s high. Lead eased to $1,964/t, while nickel ticked up to $15,090/t. Zinc gained to $2,752.5/t, while tin retreated to $33,120/t. With summer shutdowns limiting spot demand, we see little impetus for a sustained rally across the complex.

Precious Metals and Oil
Gold inched higher to $3,373/oz. Without a clear dovish shift from the Fed, which has yet to materialise, we expect the metal to trade rangebound. Silver followed suit, rising to $37.30/oz. Oil prices softened, with WTI at $66.80/bbl and Brent at $69.20/bbl.

All price data is from 04.08.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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