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Daily Base Metals Report

Jobs Data Strengthens Fed Cut Case

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US job openings fell to 7.18m in July, reinforcing Fed cut bets.
  • Base metals opened higher, with copper targeting the $10,000/t level, but struggled to maintain this position and retreating later in the day. 
  • Gold extended records above $3,560/oz; silver rallied above $41.0/oz.

Macro

US equities opened mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow edging lower while the Nasdaq approached record highs. Labour market data added to the dovish policy backdrop, as the JOLTS report showed job openings fell more sharply than expected in July, dropping by 176k to 7.18m against forecasts of 7.38m. The figures underscored moderating labour demand, reinforcing market conviction that the Fed will ease policy this month, with forward swaps now pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps cut. The dollar softened, with the index trading just above 98.0, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.22%. In Europe, final PMI services readings diverged: Germany dipped into contraction at 49.3, while the UK posted a stronger-than-expected 54.2, lifting GBP/USD to 1.344 after Tuesday’s decline.

Base Metals 

Base metals experienced moderate selling pressures today, giving up some of yesterday's gains, particularly in copper, zinc, and tin. However, the weakness was relatively contained, which may indicate a pause before the market continues to test near-term resistance levels. Notably, copper opened strong, attempting to break the important $10,000/t resistance level but struggled to maintain that position, ultimately dropping back to $9,969.50/t. Similarly, zinc tested and rejected prices above $2,900/t, retreating to $2,859/t. Meanwhile, aluminium and lead remained steady at $2,618/t and $1,996/t, respectively.

Precious Metals and Oil

Expectations of Fed easing continued to drive precious metals higher, with gold pushing further into record territory above $3,560/oz and silver advancing past $41.0 to trade around $41.3/oz. Oil prices softened, with WTI slipping below $64.0/bbl and Brent easing under $67.7/bbl.

All price data is from 03.09.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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