Summary
- September Fed cut fully priced in.
- Mixed base metal performance.
- Gold hit fresh record above $3,640/oz.
Macro
US equities opened higher on Monday as attention turned firmly to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. Forward swaps now fully price a 25bps cut this month, with some probability attached to a larger 50bps move. The dollar softened against major peers, with the index slipping to 97.6, while the 10-year yield extended its decline to around 4.06%. In Asia, Japan’s economy expanded at 2.2% QoQ in Q2, more than double the initial 1.0% estimate, following upward revisions in private consumption and inventories. The data suggest a firmer recovery momentum than previously thought, even as external headwinds remain.
Base Metals
LME base metals were mixed on Monday. Aluminium firmed, holding above $2,610/t, while copper edged higher to trade just under the $9,930/t mark. Lead also gained modestly, trading near $1,993/t. In contrast, nickel eased slightly, slipping below $15,230/t, while tin extended its recent pullback, closing at $34,262/t after late August’s highs. Zinc was stronger, pushing up towards $2,875/t, close to its recent peak.
Precious Metals and Oil
Falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar created perfect conditions for precious metals, with gold starting the week at new record highs, breaking above $3,600/oz and trading near $3,640/oz at the time of writing. Silver also advanced, surpassing $41.5/oz to reach $41.57/oz. Oil prices were more volatile, with WTI holding around $62.3/bbl and Brent near $66.0/bbl.
All price data is from 08.09.2025 as of 17:30