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Daily Base Metals Report

Base Metals Cap Week on Strength

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US equities reached another high, driven by positive developments in AI. 
  • ISM service activity remained stagnant, which aligns with market expectations for 50bps worth of Fed cuts for the remainder of the year. 
  • Base metals ended the week with impressive gains, with copper continuing to attract buyer interest. 
  • Gold and silver prices strengthened after a brief pause yesterday.

Macro

US stocks strengthened on Friday, closing the week at another record high, bolstered by a new wave of positive developments in the AI sector that encouraged continued equity buying. However, macroeconomic data later in the day revealed further signs of US weakness, which tempered some of the risk-on sentiment in the market. In particular, the ISM report on the US service sector indicated signs of stagnation, with the index falling to 49.9. This decline was mainly driven by a contraction in business activity, which shrank for the first time since the pandemic began. Additionally, the new orders index dropped by 5.6 points to 50.4, and export orders also decreased. This figure solidified market expectations for a 50bps rate cut from the Fed, with the probability standing at 46% at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained subdued at 97.72, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.10%. 

Base Metals 

Base metals ended the week on a high note, closing Friday with impressive gains that pushed prices to new levels. Copper, a key driver for the entire sector, continued to attract buying interest, soaring above the $10,500/t level to reach $10,7125.50t. Meanwhile, the cash-to-three-month spread tightened to -$22/t, suggesting that most buying activity is concentrated in the near-term contracts.

COMEX copper has also gained momentum, increasing the arbitrage between the two metals to $660/t. Other metals followed suit, with aluminium trading above $2,700/t as it aims to test the resistance level of $2,720/t, which is a previous high. Nickel surged to $15,433/t, while tin rallied for the third consecutive day to reach $37,455/t, close to April levels. Lead and zinc opened the week strongly but lacked the momentum to maintain their gains, resulting in moderate declines to $2,020/t and $3,014.50/t, respectively.

Precious Metals and Oil

Oil prices are poised for their biggest weekly decline since June ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to introduce additional crude supply to the market. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $61/bbl, while Brent is at $64.70/bbl. Meanwhile, precious metals have resumed their upward trend following a brief pause yesterday, with gold and silver prices rising to $3,880/oz and $47.90/oz, respectively.

All price data is from 03.10.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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