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Daily Base Metals Report

Equities Pause While Gold Eyes Key Resistance

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US stock rally paused, as investors engaged in profit-taking. 
  • Copper led the base metals complex higher, while tin offset previous gains. 
  • Gold is eyeing the key $4,000/oz resistance level, as silver takes a pause. 

Macro

US stocks paused their upside today on signs of upside fatigue, awaiting key remarks from the Fed speakers. Moreover, with no news on AI-driven deals, the upside seems to be moderating to suggest that US markets, especially when compared to the Eurozone, have benefited more from the AI trend than anything else. This suggests that equities might be overextended, especially if signs of no new positives on AI or potential bad news from the segment emerge, which could lead to a period of consolidation. With commodities continuing to climb, including precious and some base metals, today’s pause in equities could be a sign of market profit-taking. Given the quiet US economic calendar and continued US government shutdown, the US asset momentum seems to be driven by investor appetite rather than macroeconomic fundamentals. 

The US dollar jumped higher, maintaining its position above 98.00 and eyeing the key resistance of 98.60, which has kept the index subdued for the last two months. The 10-year US Treasury yield held its nerve at 4.14%. 

In other regions, the yen continued to weaken, reaching the 151 level against the dollar, a low not seen since April, as markets reacted to the anticipated appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's new Prime Minister.

Base Metals 

Base metals have continued to scale new heights, driven by the copper momentum, which has propelled the entire complex higher. Both LME and COMEX copper prices have gained momentum, with the open interest on COMEX becoming more inflated, maintaining an elevated arbitrage between the two exchanges at $700/t. LME copper held above the support level of $10,700/t at the opening, prompting further gains to $10,761/t. Aluminium followed suit, rising to $2,741.50/t. Zinc posted more modest gains, staying above the strong support level of $3,000/t at $3,046/t. Lead remained above $2,000/t. However, tin was the only metal to weaken, falling to $36,540/t as it aimed to offset previous gains due to concerns over Indonesian mine supply.

Precious Metals and Oil

Oil futures held steady, with WTI and Brent trading at $61.50/bbl and $65.20/bbl at the time of writing. 

Precious metals show no signs of easing from recent highs, with gold eyeing the key $4,000/oz resistance level as investors continue to ride the bullish trend. Silver’s performance, however, has been more subdued, slipping back to around $48/oz as momentum appears to be stalling above the $48.65/oz level. As mentioned in our previous comment, we believe the recent rally in precious metals lacks a strong fundamental foundation, leaving markets vulnerable to a potential reversal if signs of upside exhaustion emerge or if positive developments arise from the US, with silver likely to experience sharper losses than gold.

All price data is from 07.10.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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