Summary
- US stocks opened lower, but emerging support at key technical levels suggests dip-buyers may step in next week.
- Base metals ended the week quietly, with the exception of lead, which rallied to July highs following its inclusion on the US critical minerals list.
- Precious metals edged higher, though persistent market uncertainty continues to cap upside momentum.
Macro
US stocks gapped lower on the open, as investors continued to unwind AI-led positions, which have elevated equity valuations to record highs. This correction appears to be technical in nature, with moving averages acting as support against end-of-day selling pressures. Given healthy investment and earning from AI-driven companies for now, we expect this pullback to attract dip-buyers to renew the uptrend next week.
The continued blackout of official US economic data left markets with limited visibility on non-farm payrolls, resulting in sentiment from the previous session carrying over. The US dollar softened to 99.50, while the 10-year Treasury yield held its ground above 4.00%.
Fresh data showed Chinese exports falling 1.1% YoY in October, largely due to a 25% YoY decline in shipments to the US. While this headline sparked structural demand concerns, we see the decline as a normalisation after earlier front-loading ahead of tariff adjustments. In USD terms, Chinese shipments to the US have remained broadly stable vs September, pointing to post-tariff volatility stabilisation rather than emerging weakness. With the trade truce extended for another year, we expect Chinese exports to moderate relative to 2025, yet remain historically healthy.
Base Metals
Weaker Chinese trade data has largely been treated as background noise in base metals today, suggesting markets remain unresponsive to macro headlines. Instead, price action has been more dollar-driven, with dollar softness offering modest support today, though the foundation is fragile. We believe copper will remain confined within a tight trading range, with a growing bias for further softness and a dip below $10,600/t likely in the near term. In the meantime, copper held above this level, closing at $10,716.50/t. Likewise, aluminium and zinc held steady at $2,848/t and $3,056.50/t, respectively.
Lead was an outlier, jumping after its addition to the US critical minerals list. The cash-to-3-month spread tightened to -$8.50/t, while the 3-month forward surged $25/t to $2,050/t – a July high.
Precious Metals and Oil
Precious metals extended gains on the back of softer labour data, with gold and silver closing at $3,990/t and $48.25/t, respectively.
All price data is from 07.11.2025 as of 17:30