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Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Poised for a Data-Driven Reset

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • December cut expectations have eroded sharply; we retain a no-cut view.
  • Zinc squeeze unwinds as November tightness expires, removing front-month support.
  • Precious metals softened as December cut pricing faded, diminishing gold’s yield advantage.

Macro

A cautious tone defined the start of the week as US equities opened lower, with markets positioning ahead of Thursday’s first major data release delayed by the government shutdown. Thursday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls report is now centre-stage, with expectations of a modest rebound to 57k following August’s downside surprise at 22k. With the data calendar still distorted, investors are increasingly sensitive to labour-market signals as they reassess the near-term path of the Federal Reserve. Market pricing for a December cut has collapsed, and we continue to expect no move this month. Even if softer data emerges, we think the Fed will lean hawkish to maintain credibility, likely stoking further volatility in both the dollar and US Treasury yields. The dollar index edged back towards 99.5, while the 10yr yield continued to struggle to maintain a foothold above 4.15%.

Base Metals

Base metals began the week on the back foot, with sentiment undermined by extended CTA long positioning across the board. With momentum signals softening, the complex remains vulnerable to mechanical unwinds that could see prices drift lower as the week progresses. Aluminium slipped below 2,820/t, copper eased towards 10,750/t, while lead broke beneath 2,040/t. Nickel led losses, falling to 14,650/t – its weakest level since April.

In zinc, today’s expiry of the November tightness removes the structural squeeze that had been driven mainly by shorts borrowing the nearby rather than any conviction long build. As those positions roll forward and spreads normalise, price support is fading. Zinc has already fallen below 3,000/oz, and with volatility subdued and positioning still stretched, risks remain skewed to the downside.

Precious Metals and Oil

Precious metals eased as last week’s sharp rebound gave way to renewed pressure from fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut. The shift has eroded gold’s relative yield appeal, keeping sentiment fragile. Gold traded narrowly between 4,050–4,100/oz, while silver held below 51.0/oz. Without a materially soft labour print this week to reignite January cut expectations, precious metals are likely to stay on the back foot.

Oil prices held firm in the upper end of recent ranges, with WTI above 60.0/bbl and Brent near 64.4/bbl.

All price data is from 17.11.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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