Summary
- CME outage and return of trading operations in the afternoon prompted strong risk-on sentiment.
- Copper is becoming increasingly more sensitive to modest bullish catalysts, as a narrative of tightening supply grows.
- Silver rallied, surpassing October highs and reaching a new record of $55.60/oz.
Macro
US stocks strengthened moderately following the reopening of the CME activity, which disrupted morning trading. The S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive day of gains, jumping towards the 6,830 level, as markets continue to bet on a Fed cut in December, supporting the risk-on sentiment. With a lack of strong macroeconomic signals and the US Thanksgiving holiday, the dollar and US 10-year Treasury yields held steady at around 99.50% and 4.02%, respectively.
Base Metals
Lower liquidity during the US holiday tempered equity gains, but the impact on base and precious metals was more pronounced. When COMEX copper trading resumed in the afternoon (London time), buying momentum surged, leading to rallies in copper across both exchanges. LME copper surpassed the $11,000/t level to test a crucial resistance of $11,200/t, which coincides with the October highs. This supported the general risk-on sentiment across the complex, with aluminium and zinc strengthening towards $2,875/t at $3,050/t, respectively.
We believe that the market narrative around tightening copper availability is becoming increasingly prevalent. Positioning appears to be already reflecting expectations of higher prices, yet copper has been lacking a decisive catalyst to force a breakout. This helps explain why the temporary CME shutdown was sufficient to spark an outsized move. The market appears primed for upside but lacking triggers.
In our view, this leaves copper highly sensitive to incremental bullish signals, including improvements in downstream demand, even modest supply disruptions at mid-tier mines or smelters, or any exchange-specific developments that alter liquidity conditions on the COMEX. Given this backdrop, we expect LME copper to remain reactive and lean higher in response to relatively small positive shocks.
Precious Metals and Oil
Precious metals strengthened due to a combination of erratic trading hours on the CME and continued Fed dovishness. Given silver’s physical exchange tightness and more speculatively driven environment compared to gold, the upside was much stronger, with prices surpassing October highs of $55.50/oz, rallying to $55.60/oz.
With previous resistance now broken, we believe the markets are well-positioned to move higher in the medium term if speculative risk-on sentiment returns. In the meantime, a period of consolidation is likely early next week.
WTI jumped higher toward $59.40/bbl after trading activity resumed, while Brent held steady at $63.40/bbl.
All price data is from 28.11.2025 as of 17:30