Summary
- Delayed US data is unlikely to shift policy pricing materially, but thinning liquidity raises the risk of outsized moves.
- Base metals remain vulnerable to abrupt swings as prices decouple from macro signals and positioning dominates.
- Silver continues to trade as the volatility leader within precious metals, while gold struggles to extend beyond resistance.
Macro
US equities opened lower at the start of a heavy macro week, with markets shifting focus from last week’s Fed decision to a dense run of economic releases. While the Fed delivered the expected 25bps cut, the messaging around 2026 was firmer, with policymakers signalling limited appetite for further easing in the near term.
This week’s US calendar includes nonfarm payrolls, CPI and retail sales, but given the absence of imminent policy implications, we expect the data to generate only modest repricing unless outcomes are materially weaker than expected. The dollar index edged lower to around 98.2, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.15%, reflecting some consolidation after last week’s hawkish repricing rather than a renewed dovish shift.
Beyond the US, central bank decisions remain in focus. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady this week, with recent hawkish commentary failing to meaningfully alter market expectations. In the UK, the BoE is still widely expected to deliver a 25bps cut, with upcoming CPI and wage data unlikely to derail that outcome unless the prints are unexpectedly strong. In Japan, attention turns to the Bank of Japan meeting on 19 December, where markets increasingly expect a hike to 0.75%.
Base Metals
Recent price action continues to underline a fragile and increasingly disconnected base metals market. Today’s softer-than-expected China industrial production data for November had little visible impact on prices, reinforcing the growing divergence between Chinese macro signals and metals performance.
Copper edged slightly higher to around $11,685/t, while aluminium oscillated near $2,870/t. In contrast, the rest of the complex saw sharp losses: tin fell below $40,950/t, nickel dropped to around $14,330/t, zinc slipped under $3,100/t and lead fell below $1,950/t. The uneven moves reflect thinning liquidity and year-end positioning rather than changes in underlying fundamentals.
With limited technical guidance and little fresh fundamental direction, price swings are becoming increasingly exaggerated. We see this as a function of positioning and liquidity rather than trend formation, leaving the complex vulnerable to abrupt and difficult-to-predict moves into year-end.
Precious Metals and Oil
Gold briefly tested resistance near $4,350/oz earlier in the session but later slipped back below $4,300/oz, suggesting that upside momentum is beginning to stall at higher levels.
Silver, by contrast, increased back above $63.0/oz as volatility remains elevated. Prices fully retraced Friday’s drop, highlighting how sensitive the market has become to positioning flows. Market structure remains broadly unchanged, with tom-next in contango and backwardation further along the curve, pointing to continued volatility rather than outright stress.
Oil prices softened with WTI below $56.5/bbl and Brent at around $60.1/bbl.
All price data is from 15.12.2025 as of 17:30