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Daily Base Metals Report

Year-End Flows Take the Wheel as Liquidity Thins

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Late-year positioning and benchmark alignment are driving rates and FX, with yield moves reflecting portfolio mechanics rather than a change in the policy narrative.
  • Broad-based gains are being fuelled by thin liquidity and positioning, keeping volatility elevated into the final trading sessions.
  • Gold and silver remain structurally supported, but sharp two-way moves remain likely as profit-taking and flows dominate in low-liquidity conditions.

Macro

US equities opened lower ahead of the final, liquidity-thinned trading sessions of the year, with positioning and balance-sheet considerations dominating price action. The dollar index firmed above 98.2, while the 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to around 4.14%. With this marking the last full session for bond trading, flows appear increasingly technical, and we expect some late-stage buying as asset managers adjust duration and yield exposure to align with year-end benchmarks. In this context, yield moves are likely to reflect portfolio mechanics rather than a reassessment of the policy outlook. 

Base Metals

Base metals strengthened across the board today, with price action reflecting year-end flow dynamics rather than a fresh shift in fundamentals. Copper rebounded sharply, climbing back above $12,500/t, while aluminium pushed towards the $2,990/t level, continuing its steady grind higher. Lead firmed modestly above $2,010/t, but the standout move was in nickel, which surged nearly 6% to around $16,750/t, extending the recent momentum-driven rally. 

The synchronised upside across the complex suggests positioning and benchmark-related flows are dominating in thin liquidity, rather than renewed macro conviction. We expect volatility to remain elevated into the final sessions of the year, with sharp intraday moves likely to persist as liquidity remains patchy and investors complete year-end adjustments. 

Precious Metals 

Precious metals rebounded after yesterday’s pullback. Gold climbed back above $4,360/oz, while silver extended gains beyond $76/oz. Although further profit-taking remains likely in the coming sessions following outsized moves in thin liquidity, the broader backdrop remains constructive. Ongoing reserve diversification away from the dollar continues to support gold demand, while silver remains underpinned by persistent tightness and strong investor interest. We expect precious metals to remain elevated into early 2026, with price action driven more by structural allocation trends and positioning than by near-term macro data.

All price data is from 30.12.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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