Summary
- Conflicting geopolitical signals continue to drive volatility, with markets reacting more to headlines than confirmed developments.
- Base metals remain resilient despite dollar strength, but lack of follow-through suggests a continued rangebound environment.
- Elevated oil prices keep inflation risks in focus, anchoring the dollar and limiting upside across broader commodity markets.
Macro
US equities opened higher, despite continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict. Messaging from President Trump remained inconsistent, with alternating signals between progress in negotiations and the possibility of further action, leaving markets without a clear directional anchor. Over the weekend, additional strikes on industrial and energy-linked facilities across the Persian Gulf reinforced the view that the conflict remains active and unresolved, with no tangible progress on restoring full flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The dollar strengthened further, with the index trading around 100.5, while the US 10-year yield struggled to hold 4.4% and eased back towards 4.3%.
Looking ahead, attention turns to this week’s US labour market data. With no Fed cuts currently priced in, largely due to elevated energy prices, a softer-than-expected NFP print could reopen the discussion around easing, particularly if growth concerns begin to outweigh inflation risks.
Base Metals
Base metals held relatively steady, showing resilience despite the stronger dollar and elevated macro uncertainty.
Aluminium saw a sharp 6% rally at the open towards $3,500/t, supported by last weekend’s disruptions to smelting capacity in the Persian Gulf. However, the move faded through the session, with prices drifting back below $3,400/t. The metal remains in backwardation (cash-to-three-month), alongside zinc, reflecting ongoing supply tightness linked to the conflict.
Zinc continued to reflect similar dynamics, supported by its exposure to potential supply risks, while copper remained rangebound around $12,200/t, showing limited reaction despite broader macro moves.
Overall, we see the complex holding up relatively well given the strength in the dollar. However, direction remains constrained, with metals likely to stay rangebound in the absence of a clear resolution to the conflict. A meaningful de-escalation could unlock upside, particularly for copper, but until then, macro factors are likely to dominate.
Precious Metals
Precious metals remained broadly rangebound. Gold tested $4,575/oz before failing to hold gains and slipping back below $4,550/oz, suggesting that resistance levels remain intact for now. Silver moved higher, rising back above $70/oz, continuing to track gold’s direction.
The price action indicates that while bullion has stabilised following earlier volatility, momentum remains limited, with markets lacking a strong catalyst for a directional move.
Oil prices held steady at elevated levels, with Brent around $114/bbl and WTI near $102/bbl. Continued disruptions across Gulf infrastructure and uncertainty around shipping flows are keeping the energy risk premium firmly in place.
We see this as the key anchor for markets. As long as oil remains elevated, inflation concerns will persist, supporting the dollar and limiting upside across metals.
All price data is from 30.03.2026 as of 17:30