Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Energy Shock Meets Mega-Tech Moment

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Energy prices are re injecting inflation risk into the macro picture, pushing yields higher and reinforcing a defensive tone across risk assets.
  • Base metals are responding to tighter financial conditions, with FX and rates pressure triggering position driven selling after key levels gave way.
  • Gold is losing its defensive appeal as real yields rise, while oil continues to trade on supply durability and constrained flows.

 

Macro

US equities opened mixed as investors headed into a pivotal session shaped by the Fed decision and major earnings releases later today. Positioning looks cautious, with markets showing limited appetite to take risk ahead of outcomes. After the close, results are due from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta, four names that are set to define near term equity direction.

Geopolitics continue to sit firmly in focus. The White House has asked officials to prepare contingency plans consistent with an extended effort to constrain Iran’s ability to export oil. Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain impaired, with shipping flows still restricted. Markets are increasingly treating the disruption as persistent, keeping energy risk embedded in pricing.

The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged today, with forward swaps signalling no cuts and no hikes priced through 2026. In contrast, expectations for rate increases from both the ECB and the BoE later this year continue to support the dollar, with DXY holding near 98.8. The rebound in oil prices has revived inflation concerns, pushing the US 10 year Treasury yield up to around 4.4%.

Base metals

Strength in the dollar weighed on base metals across the board. 

Aluminium slipped below $3,500/t, with heavier volumes traded near the lows but no sustained rebound. This pattern typically points to stop loss selling and macro driven liquidation, while demand remains inactive. The cash to three month spread continues to hold close to $60/t backwardation, showing nearby tightness persists even as price momentum weakens.

Copper moved lower but managed to stay above the $13,000/t level, keeping the broader range intact for now.

Nickel failed again to hold above $19,500/t, sliding back toward $19,255/t. As prices push higher, the risk profile deteriorates. Levels approaching $20,000/t increase the likelihood of additional supply being approved or reactivated. Higher prices also encourage producer hedging, which adds selling pressure into rallies and limits upside traction.

Precious metals and oil

Precious metals weakened as the stronger dollar and a sharp rise in yields tightened financial conditions. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non yielding assets, while dollar strength compresses demand outside the US. Gold fell to its lowest level since March, touching $4,510/oz and struggling to regain ground above $4,550/oz. Silver dropped below $72/oz.

Oil continued to surge, with Brent trading near $118/bbl and WTI around $106/bbl, as markets price sustained disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and limited near term relief.

All price data is from 29.04.2026 as of 17:30

 

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields