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Daily Base Metals Report

Energy Relief Meets Dollar Pressure

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Oil collapse and softer yields ease inflation pressure, but dollar strength keeps markets on the defensive
  • Base metals see broad liquidation as the war premium fully unwinds and stops accelerate the move lower
  • Precious metals break key supports, with gold below $4,000/oz and silver down to $58/oz

Macro

US stocks edged higher after the open as the market stabilised following the previous session’s tech-led sell-off, with attention shifting towards upcoming earnings and inflation data. At the same time, the dollar strengthened further, pushing up to 101.8 before easing back slightly below 101.7, reinforcing tighter financial conditions even as yields moved lower.

The US 10-year yield fell sharply towards 4.4%, with the move driven by a combination of weaker oil and a repricing of inflation risk as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continued to normalise. Brent broke below $73/bbl for the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, as tanker flows resumed and markets increasingly priced a recovery in supply, reducing the inflation premium embedded in energy.

Lower oil and softer yields would normally support risk, but the stronger dollar is offsetting that effect and keeping markets on the defensive. We see the decline in yields as a reaction to falling energy prices and easing inflation pressure, which is not enough to lift sentiment on its own, so markets are likely to stay cautious unless the dollar also softens.

Base Metals

Base metals came under heavy pressure across the board, with the session developing into a clear liquidation move as lower oil removed the remaining geopolitical premium and flows turned decisively weaker.

Aluminium was one of the cleanest expressions of that shift, falling below $3,125/t and effectively giving back the entire war-driven move. Prices are now trading below the levels seen before the start of the Iran conflict, which highlights how quickly the market has repriced once energy concerns eased and the narrative shifted from disruption to normalisation.

Copper also weakened aggressively, dropping to the lowest levels in the current move. An increase in volume around $13,200/t triggered further selling, pushing the price down into the close towards $13,090/t. That flow suggests a mix of stop-driven selling and fresh short positioning, reinforcing the lack of buying interest at lower levels and confirming that the market is still in a position-reduction phase.

Nickel saw a sharp early move lower, falling from around $17,200/t to below $17,000/t in the morning, likely driven by stop-loss activity as key levels were taken out. The market failed to stabilise after that initial break and continued to grind lower through the session, closing around $16,850/t. 

Overall, the market now looks more exposed on the downside. With the geopolitical premium largely unwound and flows turning more cautious, base metals are trading off macro and positioning dynamics. We see limited support in the near term, and until buying interest returns or the dollar eases, rallies are likely to remain shallow and selling pressure is likely to persist.

Precious Metals 

Precious metals sold off sharply, with both gold and silver accelerating lower as the move extended into a full washout. Gold broke below $4,000/oz and traded down to around $3,950–3,980/oz, marking a decisive move through a key psychological and technical level. The pace of the decline suggests a combination of long liquidation and stop-driven selling once $4,000/oz gave way, reinforcing the shift from consolidation into a clearer corrective phase.

Silver underperformed again, falling to $58/oz and posting a significantly larger percentage decline. The move extends the rejection from the $70–72/oz area and confirms a more aggressive downside unwind, with little evidence of support emerging as prices moved through the lower end of the recent range.

The driver remains consistent with the broader macro setup. A stronger dollar continues to weigh heavily on the complex, while the sharp drop in yields linked to lower oil has not translated into buying interest. Instead, the move points to positioning adjustment, with the breakdown in key levels triggering further liquidation.

All price data is from 24.06.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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