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Daily Base Metals Report

US CPI Draws Reaction, Not Repricing

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • The CPI print briefly reinforced a hawkish bias, but the move faded quickly
  • Copper stabilised after the positioning reset, with nearby spreads easing and direction still catalyst dependent
  • Oil weakened as the IEA’s demand downgrade eased tightness concerns, while precious metals recovered from an initial CPI-driven weakness.

Macro

US equities moved higher on Friday after several weaker sessions, helped by lower oil prices and a return of some risk-on sentiment. The CPI release injected volatility on the print, but the figures were broadly in line with expectations, with headline CPI rising 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY in August, while core CPI edged up 0.3% MoM and eased slightly on an annual basis. Overall, the data did not point to a meaningful shift in inflation pressures and was not strong enough to materially challenge current Fed expectations. The initial reaction leaned more hawkish, but this quickly reversed, with the 10yr yield moving back towards 4.92% and the dollar easing towards 99.00.

Base Metals

We see today’s price action was driven less by the CPI release and more by a recovery from the previous session’s weakness, with dip-buying helping copper stabilise after the sharp unwind. Copper established support around $14,147/t before recovering modestly towards $14,268/t. Volumes were notably more subdued than during yesterday’s decline, suggesting that a significant portion of vulnerable long positioning had already been flushed out and that conviction in either direction remains limited. Rather than establishing a new trend, the market appears to be searching for a new equilibrium following the positioning reset.

At the same time, nearby spreads have unwound back towards neutral-to-contango territory, removing some of the physical support that had underpinned the earlier rally. This leaves the rebound looking more like stabilisation than a renewed upside leg for now. With speculative length reduced but prompt tightness also easing, copper is likely to remain choppy around current levels until stronger dip-buying returns or a fresh macro or fundamental catalyst provides clearer direction.

Zinc followed copper’s move, holding above $3,850/t at $3,880/t. Aluminium came under greater pressure following the CPI print, slipping back below $3,300/t to $3,250/t as the market reacted more sharply to the initial hawkish read-through.

Precious Metals 

Oil futures weakened after the IEA downgraded its demand outlook, easing some of the tightness narrative despite still-constrained supply. WTI and Brent traded around $99/bbl and $104/bbl, respectively. Precious metals reacted more sharply to the CPI release than base metals, initially selling off on the prospect of a more hawkish Fed narrative before recovering momentum, with gold and silver strengthening to $4,370/oz and $64.60/oz, respectively.

All price data is from 11.09.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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