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Daily Base Metals Report

Oil Shock Deepens the Metals Sell-Off

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Brent above $112/bbl intensified inflation concerns, while AI financing worries pushed technology shares lower despite falling Treasury yields.

  • Copper recovered from below $14,050/t, aluminium regained $3,000/t and nickel held above $16,000/t.

  • Gold broke below $4,050/oz and silver approached $55.00/oz as liquidation continued across the complex.

Macro

US equities moved lower, led by the Nasdaq, as Meta’s funding plans and comments about scarce capital renewed concerns over the cost and returns of AI investment. Oil added to the pressure as renewed Middle East tensions pushed Brent above $112/bbl and WTI towards $100/bbl.

Safe-haven demand pushed the US 10-year yield towards 5.05%, but lower yields offered little relief to technology shares as the focus remained on AI financing and higher energy costs. We see oil as the more significant macro risk and expect sustained strength in crude to keep inflation expectations elevated, limiting the support that lower nominal yields would usually provide to equities and metals.

Base Metals

Copper led the decline, falling to its lowest level since mid-September after a sharp increase in US LME stocks. The metal briefly traded below $14,050/t but recovered to close nearer $14,080/t, suggesting the inventory news was largely absorbed around the session low. Although the stock build is a clear headwind, the recovery above $14,050/t shows limited appetite to extend the sell-off for now.

Aluminium also tested below $3,000/t but returned to around $3,010/t. Repeated tests of $2,990/t leave the market looking less secure above $3,000/t, particularly against today’s weaker macro backdrop.

Zinc fell through $3,680/t as volumes increased late in the session, finding support near $3,670/t. Almost 9,000 tonnes of warrants were cancelled, meaning the metal has been earmarked for potential withdrawal from LME warehouses. This may help explain why the price stabilised despite the wider decline, although zinc stocks have built substantially over the past month.

Nickel held above $16,000/t after Wednesday’s rally, closing around $16,070/t. The ability to retain most of the previous session’s gains stood out in an otherwise weaker complex.

Precious Metals 

Gold broke below $4,050/oz, extending the correction from its recent $4,050-4,200/oz range. Silver fell more sharply towards $55.00/oz, reflecting its greater sensitivity to weaker industrial sentiment. Lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar failed to halt the decline, indicating that broader liquidation across precious metals remained the dominant driver.

All price data is from 22.10.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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We execute and clear a significant proportion of the market activity on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's largest non-ferrous metals exchange. We also provide access to the CME’s base metal futures and options contracts on its COMEX exchange, nickel contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and copper contracts on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE).

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