Summary
Equities advanced as yields eased, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ decisions now in focus.
Zinc broke above $3,800/t, while copper held near $14,350/t and nickel extended its decline.
Gold reclaimed $4,000/oz and silver recovered above $54/oz as the US 10-year yield slipped below 5%.
Macro
US equities started the week higher, led by technology shares, while easing volatility and a US 10-year yield below 5% improved risk appetite. DXY briefly tested 102.0 but returned towards 101.9, leaving both the dollar and rates in consolidation ahead of a busy second half of the week.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. The ECB faces a difficult balance between September inflation of 3.8%, weaker eurozone activity and elevated energy prices, while the BoJ’s guidance will be closely watched after its September rate increase. Thursday also brings US Q3 GDP and PCE inflation, while Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday, keeping monetary policy, inflation and AI spending central to market direction.
We expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged while maintaining its tightening bias. Strong GDP and firm PCE inflation would keep a December hike in play, limiting the scope for yields and the dollar to move materially lower despite today’s more positive equity session.
Base Metals
Zinc was the standout, rising to $3,825/t and moving beyond last week’s $3,750 ceiling. The move is consistent with continued tightness in prompt metal and concerns over constrained raw-material availability, although the recent increase in exchange stocks leaves the market vulnerable if today’s buying loses momentum.
Copper edged up to $14,349/t after holding above $14,250/t, but again struggled to establish itself beyond $14,350/t. US inventory accumulation continues to limit the headline price, while tight ex-US availability and constrained concentrate supply preserve the underlying support. Copper therefore remains caught between ample metal in the US and limited availability elsewhere.
Aluminium held comfortably above $3,000/t and closed near $3,050/t, while lead strengthened to $1,920t. Tin returned towards $51,000/t. Nickel was the clear exception, falling through $15,700/t to $15,585/t as high inventories, weak demand and expectations of surplus supply continued to outweigh concerns around Indonesian production.
The divergence between zinc and nickel will be the more interesting test over the next few sessions. Zinc has broken through its recent ceiling on physical tightness, while nickel’s failure to retain last week’s rebound shows that oversupply remains difficult to ignore.
Precious Metals
Gold recovered to around $4,030/oz after briefly falling below $4,000/oz, while silver rebounded from close to $53.00/oz to around $54.3/oz. Both metals moved higher as the US 10-year yield fell below 5%, although the rebound remained modest after last week’s heavy liquidation.
The Fed decision and Thursday’s PCE print are now the main focus. With the market expecting no change this week but still considering another increase in December, lower yields have eased some immediate pressure without removing the broader rates constraint.
All price data is from 26.10.2026 as of 17:30