Summary
Democratic control of the House strengthened the gridlock outlook, while lower oil eased inflation pressure.
Nickel jumped towards $15,800/t, while copper and tin spreads continued to signal tight prompt availability.
Gold reclaimed $4,000/oz and silver reached $52/oz, reversing much of Tuesday’s decline.
Macro
US equities opened higher after Democrats secured the House, creating a divided Congress under a Republican president. Democratic control makes further tax cuts and large spending packages harder to pass, leaving the current fiscal path broadly unchanged. The Senate result remains important for judicial and executive appointments, while the president retains considerable authority over tariffs and trade policy.
The US 10-year yield was broadly unchanged near 4.9%, while DXY remained rangebound. The muted reaction suggests that markets had largely priced a divided-government outcome, with reduced fiscal-expansion risk offset by uncertainty around tariffs and technology regulation.
Oil fell further as renewed diplomatic efforts with Iran removed part of October’s geopolitical premium. WTI dropped below $100/bbl, easing immediate energy-driven inflation pressure. We expect lower oil prices and greater political gridlock to support equities and limit near-term upside in the dollar and Treasury yields.
Base Metals
Base metals were mixed, with nickel the clear outperformer. Nickel rose sharply from below $15,300/t to close near $15,785/t, while aluminium gained modestly to $3,050/t after briefly approaching $3,090/t. Zinc reached $3,850/t before easing to $3,806.50/t.
Copper briefly recovered above $14,100/t but failed to hold the move, closing almost unchanged near $14,000/t. The cash-to-three-month backwardation remained elevated at around $104/t, confirming that prompt metal is still tight despite the weaker outright price. Aluminium’s backwardation widened further to around $61/t.
Tin fell below $47,000/t as weaker technology sentiment and expectations of improving supply weighed on the three-month contract. However, the cash-to-three-month spread widened sharply, showing that immediately deliverable LME metal remains scarce despite the weaker outright price.
Precious Metals
Gold rebounded sharply, rising 3% towards $4,050/oz after holding near $3,920/oz overnight. Buying accelerated as the metal broke through $3,950/oz and $4,000/oz, although momentum slowed near $4,050/oz.
Silver recorded the stronger move, gaining 4.4% to around $52.00/oz after briefly testing $49.00/oz. The break above $50.00/oz triggered a faster recovery towards $51.50/oz, but the metal struggled to extend the move beyond $52.00–52.30/oz.
Both metals recovered decisively from Tuesday’s lows. Gold’s ability to hold above $4,000/oz and silver’s ability to remain above $51.50/oz will show whether the rebound has attracted sustained buying after October’s heavy liquidation.
All price data is from 04.11.2026 as of 17:30