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Daily Base Metals Report

Hotter CPI Removes Risk-On Appetite

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • A hotter US CPI print firmed December hike pricing and lifted the dollar and yields, but we think the pricing is too aggressive, leaving a risk of softening expectations.

  • Copper rejected gains above $14,000/t, with the rest of the complex following lower; support levels are holding, leaving scope for a modest rebound.

  • Oil edged lower, while gold and silver fell sharply on the stronger inflation print.

Macro

US markets opened on the back foot, as attention centred on US CPI, which printed at 0.4% MoM for the headline figure against expectations of 0.3%. The surprise reinforced bets on a December hike, which forward swaps now price in solidly, and several policy officials have also voiced support for a move next month. That said, we do not believe one inflation print justifies such aggressive pricing, which leaves a tail risk that these hawkish expectations soften in the coming weeks.

Markets reacted largely to the CPI release, with the dollar jumping back above 102 and the 10-year US Treasury yield rallying to 5.0%. With a US holiday tomorrow and little macroeconomic data due, we expect price action across key risk assets to remain muted.

Base Metals

Base metals weakened today, driven largely by technical selling in copper. As highlighted previously, we viewed $14,000/t as an important threshold, and today’s price action reinforced the market’s hesitancy to establish itself above this level. After testing $14,000/t, a fresh wave of selling emerged, pushing copper back towards $13,760/t. For now, this looks more consistent with rejection at resistance than a broader deterioration in the underlying copper story, although repeated failures around $14,000/t increase the risk of further profit-taking if nearby support gives way.

Aluminium followed copper lower, falling by as much as $97/t and breaking below the psychological $3,000/t level. However, with the October support around $2,900/t holding and the cash-to-three-month spread remaining firmly backwardated at around $94/t, the underlying market structure continues to provide some support against the outright sell-off. This creates scope for a moderate technical rebound, potentially taking prices back above $3,000/t, although we expect upside to become more difficult approaching $3,100/t.

The rest of the complex also traded lower but continued to hold important support levels, with nickel around $16,000/t and zinc around $3,700/t. This suggests that today’s weakness was primarily an extension of the copper and aluminium move rather than a broad capitulation across base metals. With key support levels still intact, selling pressure could begin to lose momentum, leaving room for a modest complex-wide rebound if no fresh bearish catalyst emerges.

Precious Metals

Oil prices continued to edge lower, while precious metals fell sharply as the stronger-than-expected inflation print weighed on sentiment. Gold slipped to $4,040/oz and silver to $51.50/oz.

All price data is from 10.11.2026 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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