Summary
Risk-on sentiment returned on AI optimism and aggressive Fed pricing, which pushed the dollar higher.
Prices were supportive, rebounding despite a stronger dollar, but aluminium spread tightness poses the risk of a sharp tightness unwind.
WTI is finding support near $85/bbl, while gold and silver held steady despite the dollar and yield moves.
Macro
US stocks gapped higher at the open on better-than-expected earnings from AI infrastructure providers and continued enthusiasm for AI names. Momentum stalled quickly, however, suggesting investors are reluctant to push this sentiment much higher and are more likely to react to individual company results than to follow a broad trend. Meanwhile, the dollar rallied as markets leaned further into a strong Fed tightening cycle, now pricing three more hikes by the end of next year, including December’s. This lifted yields, with the 10-year jumping to 5.0% and the dollar index strengthening to 102.90, an October high. In our view, this looks priced in too aggressively, leaving room for an unwind of the momentum into the weekend.
Base Metals
Base metals bounced back today despite a sharp rally in the dollar, suggesting that idiosyncratic dynamics are driving the broader sentiment. Aluminium reversed much of yesterday’s weakness, reclaiming the $3,000/t level and rallying towards $3,060/t. Nearby spreads also tightened aggressively, with cash–3M backwardation widening to around $150/t. While this reinforces the immediate tightness in the aluminium market, the speed and scale of the move also increase the risk of a sharp spread unwind. Such an unwind would remove some fundamental support from outright prices, but we still expect the $3,000/t area to remain relatively firm given the broader technical and fundamental backdrop.
Copper was similarly resilient, defending support around $13,750/t and staging a cautious recovery towards $13,780/t. Zinc continued to track the broader copper move, holding above $3,700/t before recovering towards $3,735/t. Nickel and tin also defended their respective support levels around $16,000/t and $46,000/t. Overall, today’s price action suggests that the complex is beginning to establish firmer near-term floors following the recent correction. The ability of these levels to hold despite a stronger dollar is constructive, although a more meaningful recovery would still require renewed upside momentum.
Precious Metals
Oil climbed despite little new news from the Middle East, suggesting WTI may be finding fresh support around $85/bbl as geopolitical uncertainty lingers. Precious metals were calmer despite big moves in the dollar and Treasury yields, with gold holding at $4,000/oz and silver at $52/oz.
All price data is from 11.11.2026 as of 17:30