China held the National People’s Congress in early March, drawing thousands of delegates to the biggest reshuffle of China’s economic policy team. In this note, we look at the impact of the latest NPC meeting to help gauge the mark of new policies on longer-term economic prospects from the region.
The rally we saw in the first weeks of 2023 has stalled, and sentiment deteriorated since, especially in early May. Strong momentum out of China is absent, but recovery out of the region is underway, with services continuing to outperform. Downstream activity improved amid traditional peak season, but buyers have mostly purchased on the dip as needed. The demand outlook continues to struggle, with end-users showing continued softness in the goods’ sales. While this should lead to further easing in the supply chain issues we have witnessed in the last couple of years, looming recessionary fears are weighing on our demand outlook. With the key central banks ending their monetary policy tightening cycle, the focus is poised to shift away from inflation-centric data to fundamentals, such as economic growth and consumer performance. The historically weaker dollar should provide robust support for metals, but with the lack of a strong incentive, we struggle to see base metals significantly higher in Q2 2023.
Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. The Brazilian real was seen strengthening in recent weeks despite the outlook for lower interest rates as investors are growing optimistic that a new fiscal framework proposal is set to succeed in shoring up public finances. With markets expecting the BCB to cut rates soon, what is the outlook for USDBRL?
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Read our short coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, and coffee market forecasts to take advantage of market movements. Since our last October report, the trend has changed, and we saw coffee prices strengthen, and the weather is now our main concern. In this coffee crop update, we assess the development of macroeconomic and consumer habit factors and provide our crop number estimates to help gauge the coffee price outlook.
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