EUR / USD
EUR/USD weakened on the open following the French PM's resignation yesterday, citing inflexibility among political parties and internal conflicts that failed to form a government. French equities declined, and bond yields increased due to deteriorating expectations for public finances. EUR/USD moves were contained, holding above 1.1700 by the end of the day, as the political instability in France did not affect the overall outlook for the eurozone.
Technical analysis reveals a modest overall decline of 0.08% with the pair trading between 1.169 and 1.173, while encountering notable selling pressure during the European session. Additionally, there are indications of diminishing momentum, as evidenced by the daily RSI at 48; however, the 100-day moving average at 1.1623 is providing robust support.
Despite early dollar strength, the underlying trend suggests continued currency weakness, as highlighted by the deteriorating US fiscal outlook, which includes a projected $1.9 trillion deficit in FY 2025, combined with weak ADP employment data. The medium-term outlook appears to favour continued euro strength, particularly given the ECB's measured monetary policy approach compared to the Fed's more aggressive easing stance.
USD / JPY
USD/JPY has shown remarkable strength, breaking above the critical 150 level amid significant institutional buying interest during European trading hours. This surge comes as Sanae Takaichi's election as Japan's LDP leader has dramatically reduced expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in October, with probability estimates dropping from 60% to 25%. Takaichi's strong advocacy for Abenomics-style policies, including continued monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, has contributed to substantial yen weakness against major currencies.
The technical outlook remains decidedly bullish, with the currency pair trading well above all major moving averages, including the 20-day SMA at 147.90 and the 50-day at 147.84. Major financial institutions have closed their bullish yen positions in response to Japan's shifting policy landscape. At the same time, the potential for continued US Treasury yield increases could push the pair toward testing the July high of 150.92.
GBP / USD
GBP/USD demonstrated resilience despite complex macroeconomic challenges, with technical indicators suggesting underlying strength as the currency maintains positions above key moving averages. The Bank of England's commitment to higher interest rates until 2026, driven by persistent inflation concerns, continues to provide fundamental support for sterling against the dollar.
Longer-term market sentiment towards the US dollar has remained weak, with high probabilities of Fed rate cuts priced in for both October and December, potentially creating a supportive environment for GBP/USD appreciation. The pair's recent trading pattern, which saw it climb from 1.343 to 1.349, indicates positive momentum, though significant resistance remains at 1.350.
The UK's demonstrated economic resilience, particularly in construction and manufacturing sectors, offers some support for sterling, although Brexit-related trade frictions continue to pose challenges. A convergence of technical and fundamental factors suggests potential for further upside in GBP/USD, provided the pair breaks back above the critical 1.35 level. We expect heightened volatility to persist, primarily driven by fluctuations in the dollar.
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