Client Portal

Aluminium Outlook

Adobestock 309590593

Expert aluminium market insights

Our quarterly aluminium outlook is published in our Quarterly Metals Report, which covers base, precious and ferrous metals. The impact of supply and demand fundamentals, including LME and SHFE stocks and macroeconomic implications for the aluminium futures and spot prices are analysed. Our research team produce an aluminium price range forecast as part of the report.

Rafik Wahba W4gqtckk1f0 Unsplash
Latest

Aluminium Outlook – Q3 2026

Aluminium has moved from a disruption-led rally into a supported range. Al Taweelah’s restart and record Chinese exports have reduced shortage risk, but Gulf supply is not fully normalised and inventories remain low. We see fair value around $3,050–3,200/t, with dips supported and rallies above $3,200/t likely capped.

Metals

The first half of 2026 was dominated by geopolitical risk, inflation concerns and shifting monetary policy expectations. As we move into H2, many of those themes remain relevant, but the market focus has become more nuanced. Investors are no longer reacting to events themselves, but to the way they influence energy prices, inflation, and ultimately policy expectations. The result is an increasingly uneven backdrop across commodity markets. Across base metals, this has produced a more selective environment in which individual supply-demand dynamics, positioning and sector-specific demand trends are playing a larger role in price formation than broad macro sentiment alone.
Quarterly Metals Report

Quarterly Metals Report Archive

Aluminium Outlook – Q3 2020
Aluminium Outlook – Q2 2020
Aluminium Outlook – Q1 2020

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

You might like

EV & Battery Materials Outlook

The suite of reports looks at how the global automobile market is changing as vehicle manufacturers look to transition to a more environmentally friendly fleet of autos.

EV & Battery Materials Outlook

Daily Base Metals Analysis

Our daily base metals reports summarise the day's trading activity for the LME and other key base metal markets. In addition, we provide an overview of the day's significant macroeconomic trends, including relevant energy and precious metals commentary. The report also incorporates base metals pricing data, including LME closing prices.

Daily Base Metals Analysis

FX Outlook

As an established market participant in foreign exchange, we supply liquidity and a full range of FX services to various global institutions. Our research team and experienced traders and brokers leverage their insights and expertise to produce practical and unique currency outlooks covering a wide range of FX pairs. Our regular FX insights include a monthly FX outlook and daily FX analysis, with currency commentary and key technical levels.

FX Outlook

Base Metals

We execute and clear a significant proportion of the market activity on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's largest non-ferrous metals exchange. We also provide access to the CME’s base metal futures and options contracts on its COMEX exchange, nickel contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and copper contracts on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE).

Base Metals

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields