US Inflation in Focus
Summary
- Markets remain cautious ahead of US CPI data, which could shape expectations for monetary policy.
- Base metals weakened slightly as markets continued to digest the tariff news.
- Gold hit a new record before retreating, while oil prices edged higher.
US stocks opened lower today as investors positioned cautiously ahead of tomorrow’s key US CPI release, which is expected to provide further clarity on inflation trends and the potential trajectory of monetary policy. Market participants remain focused on how persistent price pressures could influence the Federal Reserve’s next moves, particularly in the wake of recent trade policy developments. The US dollar weakened against most major currencies, except the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, as broader market sentiment turned cautious. The dollar index declined to 108.1, reflecting a pullback after recent gains. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded above 4.5%
The base metals space saw a moderate risk-off sentiment today, reversing some recent gains. Markets continue to digest the announcement of upcoming tariffs on aluminium and steel, which are scheduled to take effect in early March. This timeline allows certain nations, such as Canada and Mexico - some of the largest exporters of those materials to the US - to possible negotiate a deal or seek exemptions. This has lessened the urgency in terms of supply availability, prompting a modest correction in the market. Copper weakened to test the support level of $9,300/t before settling slightly above it at $9,358/t. Likewise, aluminium weakened back below the $2,650/t level as it struggled to maintain recent highs. Lead and zinc edged lower, with the former breaking back below the psychological $2,000/t, suggesting a lack of appetite for significantly higher prices. Nickel weakened slightly but rejected prices below the $15,400/t level, returning to $15,538/t.
Gold briefly touched a new all-time high of $2,940/oz before retracing to trade at $2,905/oz, as traders locked in profits following recent record-breaking gains. Silver, however, struggled to maintain momentum, hovering just below the $32.0/oz mark at $31.9/oz at the time of writing. Oil prices advanced steadily, with WTI rising to $73.0/bbl and Brent crude climbing to $76.7/bbl, supported by shifting risk sentiment ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data.
All price data is from 11.02.2025 as of 17:30