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Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Tariff Anxiety Persists

Summary

  • UK economic data surprised to the upside, supporting the pound against the weakening dollar.
  • Cash to 3-month copper spreads have tightened while remaining in backwardation, indicating expectations of growing market tightness.
  • Decline in US Treasury yields led gold to trade near record highs, while silver saw limited movement.

US stocks opened higher today as investors assessed economic data from both the US and the UK. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose more than expected in January, increasing 3.5% YoY compared to 3.3% in December. Despite this inflationary signal, the 10-year US Treasury yield reversed all of yesterday’s gains, falling to 4.53%, while the dollar weakened steadily, trading at 107.3. 

UK data was in focus, with better-than-expected industrial production figures. Although industrial output declined by 1.9% YoY, it was less severe than forecast. Meanwhile, Q4 2025 GDP growth surprised to the upside at 0.1% QoQ, avoiding the expected contraction. The data provided a boost to the pound, with GBPUSD testing the 1.2530 level. The euro also strengthened ahead of tomorrow’s Eurozone GDP release, which is expected to show 0.0% QoQ growth.

Despite a weaker dollar today, a lacklustre sentiment was seen in the LME forward space. Copper is the only exemption. COMEX/LME arb continued to widen further, supporting LME prices. While the 3-month price struggled above the $9,500/t level once again, the cash to 3-month spread contracted from -$100/t to -$61/t in the space of a day, suggesting growing concerns about potential material tightness. While there have been no clear updates regarding metal tariffs since the start of the week, markets are growing concerned about the implications for supply availability. This concern is reflected more strongly in the COMEX market. In the meantime, copper closed at $9,485/t. Aluminium weakened, testing and rejecting prices below the $2,600/t level. Lead and zinc remained broadly unchanged, as nickel defended the support at $15,300/t once again. 

Gold traded within a narrow range of $2,910–$2,920/oz, hovering near record highs. Silver saw muted performance, edging lower to trade below $32.2/oz. Oil prices remained largely unchanged, with WTI at $71.1/bbl and Brent at $74.7/bbl.

 Lme Metals Price And Volume 13022025

All price data is from 13.02.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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