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Daily Base Metals Report

Weaker Labour data Undermines US Outlook

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Weaker US jobs data weighted on the dollar.
  • Gold remained rangebound as markets continued to dismiss the inflationary impact of shifting tariff policies.
  • In base metals, upside appetite is waning as markets lack further triggers to drive prices higher.

Macro

US stocks fell at the open following a weaker-than-expected February jobs report, adding to concerns about slowing economic momentum. Non-farm payrolls, a key measure of job creation, rose by just 151k, falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% YoY from 4.0% . Meanwhile, in the eurozone, revised GDP data showed that the bloc's economy grew 0.2% QoQ in Q4 2024, slightly above the earlier estimate of 0.1%. However, the figures confirmed that Germany and France, the region’s two largest economies, both contracted, underscoring ongoing economic fragility. The euro strengthened against the dollar, with EUR/USD rising above 1.086. The dollar index extended its losses, sliding to 103.5, where it found support—the same level it traded at just before Trump’s election victory.

Base Metals

The base metals complex started this week on the front foot, reflecting broader market volatility, with a combination of a weaker dollar and China's potential decision to cut steel supply providing a fundamental boost. However, by the end of the week, the upward momentum appears to be stalling, with markets struggling to find further triggers to drive prices higher. In particular, copper rejected prices above the $9,700/t level, falling slightly back to $9,645/t; we expect the support at the $9,500-$9,600/t range to hold in the near term. Aluminium saw more modest gains, remaining above the $2,700/t mark. Lead and zinc softened. Nickel was the only exception, posting protracted gains for the second straight day to test the $16,500/t resistance level. 

We anticipate that, in the near term, if no new fundamental triggers emerge, mean reversion strategies may come into play as markets work to digest recent announcements. As a result, the performance is likely to be more muted next week. 

Precious Metals and Oil 

Gold remained stuck in its tight range, trading at $2915/oz, as markets dismissed the inflationary impact of Trump's tariff policies, given the constant reversals. Silver saw a larger decline, slipping to $32.3/oz. Oil prices climbed, with Brent crude rising back above $70/bbl, while WTI traded at $67.5/bbl.

07032025

All price data is from 07.03.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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