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Daily Base Metals Report

Base Metals Investors Show Growing Indifference to Tariff News

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

 

Summary

  • Markets rattled as Trump doubles tariffs on Canadian metals, stoking recession fears.
  • Despite the tariff announcement directly targeting imported aluminium, the metal’s performance on the LME was underwhelming as it struggled to breach recent highs.
  • Gold and silver gain amid trade war concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. 

 

Macro

US stocks plunged today after President Trump announced plans to double upcoming tariffs on Canadian aluminium and steel from 25% to 50%, fuelling recession fears. The move, set to take effect on Wednesday, is particularly significant as Canada supplies 52% of US aluminium imports. Higher tariffs could sharply increase production costs for US industries reliant on these materials, from automotive manufacturing to construction, potentially slowing economic growth and driving inflationary pressures. The dollar continued its decline, slipping to 103.4—below pre-election levels—while the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded, climbing back above 4.2% to trade at 4.25%.

Base Metals

Despite the announcement to double the tariffs on aluminium and steel from Canada from 25% to 50%, the reaction on the LME was underwhelming. Aluminium initially responded positively, but the resistance of $2,710/t capped upside potential, leading to a closing price of $2,703/t at the time of writing. Similarly, copper rose above the $9,600/t mark but struggled to surpass recent highs of $9,700/t, resulting in copper closing at $9,662.50/t. 

Moreover, trading volumes for LME copper have been smaller compared to last week, indicating that market participants are becoming somewhat indifferent to the actual tariff implementation. Even in the COMEX market, which tends to reflect speculative interest more sharply, the upside appetite for copper and aluminium has been moderate. As of now, tariff increases are likely to hurt American importers more in the short term, and with continued changes to tariff rules and their implementation, investors are not yet convinced that these measures will significantly alter the fundamental supply and demand dynamics. For the rest of the complex, moderate upward momentum supported lead and zinc up to $2,052/t and $2,912.50/t, respectively. Nickel struggled above the $16,500/t resistance once again.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold edged higher to $2,916/oz, while silver saw a sharp jump to $32.7/oz as trade war concerns and speculation over a potential Ukraine deal fuelled volatile market sentiment. Meanwhile, oil markets remained choppy, with ICE Brent hovering around the $70/bbl mark and WTI rising to $66.8/bbl. Uncertainty over OPEC+ strategy continues to weigh on the outlook, as Saudi Arabia’s push to restore production in April has dampened investor confidence, increasing concerns over a prolonged supply glut in the second half of 2025.

 Lme Metals Price And Volume 11032025

All price data is from 11.03.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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