Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Trade Cautiously Amid Outlook Uncertainty

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Mixed retail sales performance has fostered a moderate appetite for equities.
  • Base metals remain elevated due to ongoing dollar weakness, though the absence of a strong fundamental catalyst limits further gains.
  • Gold continues to hover around the $3,000/t mark, indicating sustained interest and support above this level.

Macro

US stocks continued to edge higher following Friday’s rebound, despite mixed consumer data. The equity markets, which have been grappling with the negative impacts of tariffs on US economic prospects, experienced a sell-off in recent days. However, today's performance shows positive signs that the pessimistic view might be fading. This is especially relevant with the upcoming Fed meeting scheduled for March 19, where no changes to the key interest rate are anticipated. More importantly, investors will closely monitor the meeting minutes in the following weeks to assess policymakers' sentiment regarding the impact of tariffs on the monetary policy outlook. 

In the meantime, the retail sales figures were mixed; month-on-month sales increased by only 0.2%, which was lower than expected, and the previous month's data was also revised lower. However, the control group sales, which contribute to GDP calculations, rose by 1.0% in February, adding uncertainty to the accuracy of actual spending figures. The dollar index fell, retesting the previous support level of 103.25, as the US 10-year Treasury yield remained in the lower end of its trading range, at 4.25%.

Elsewhere, China's economic data surpassed expectations, with retail sales rising by 4.0% YoY and industrial production increasing by 5.9% YoY. Additionally, officials unveiled plans to boost the economy by raising household incomes. Other measures include efforts to stabilize the real estate market. However, recent data on new home prices revealed a 0.14% monthly decline, marking a reversal of the recovery seen in recent months.

Base Metals

Despite the positive news from China, we believe the base metals complex remains elevated primarily due to a softer dollar. There is a lack of a strong fundamental narrative to justify why the complex should sustain these elevated levels in the near term. Copper edged higher, hovering around the $9,850/t mark, struggling to reach significant new highs. Lead has also strengthened, approaching a key $2,100/t resistance level. Other metals experienced moderate selling pressure, with aluminium fluctuating around the $2,700/t level, as nickel weakened below the $16,500/t level. Zinc held below $3,000/t. 

Precious Metals and Oil

Oil prices rose on the back of economic news out of China, along with rising geopolitical risks in Yemen. WTI and Brent are trading at $67/bbl and $71/bbl at the time of writing. Gold is hovering near the key $3,000/oz resistance level after briefly testing it on Friday, indicating a sustained interest in higher prices.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 17032025

All price data is from 17.03.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields