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Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Better-than-expected US labour data prompted US stocks to strengthen, effectively reversing the tariff-driven selloff. 
  • Base metals weakened today, closing the week mostly unchanged
  • Gold remained subdued as silver continued to post robust gains to $36/oz. 

Macro

US stocks closed the week on the front foot, with the S&P 500 breaching the critical 6000 threshold on the back of better-than-expected labour market data. The US nonfarm payrolls showed an increase of 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding the expectation of 126,000. While this figure is lower than April’s increase of 177,000, easing some of the dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve. As a result, forward swaps are now priced at 44 basis points by the end of the year, compared to 57 basis points earlier in the week. This has helped to support the dollar, which has bounced back to 99.10. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached the 4.50% level. 

Base Metals

Base metals started this week with a subdued tone, continuing the recent trend of sideways trading that has capped price momentum across the complex. However, by the end of the week, there was a noticeable shift in momentum, particularly for copper, which experienced volatility.  Due to the sensitivity of the arbitrage differential to tariff news, we expect that any updates regarding tariffs will have a more significant impact on copper than on other base metals. 

In the meantime, copper edged back below the $9,700/t level to $9,693/t, as aluminium weakened to $2,440/t. Lead and zinc edged slightly lower to $1,979/t and $2,667/t, respectively. We maintain a cautiously bullish stance on the overall complex, given the underlying macroeconomic and fundamental factors. However, markets are likely to remain hesitant to break out of their current price ranges in a sustainable manner without a strong catalyst. Copper is expected to lead the way, while other metals may exhibit more subdued behaviour.  

Precious Metals and Oil

Oil futures strengthened, with both WTI and Brent strengthening to the $65/bbl level. Gold edged lower to $3,220/oz, as silver continued to mark new highs, approaching $36/oz level.

All price data is from 06.06.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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