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Daily Base Metals Report

Flight To Safety Amid Middle East Turmoil

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Geopolitical escalation drives flight to safety
  • Base metals initially retreated on the back of a stronger dollar but later rebounded, reclaiming key support levels established earlier this week.
  • US yields climb as market reprices inflation risk while gold approaches record-high again

Macro

US equities opened sharply lower on Friday, as investors moved away from risk assets following reports of large-scale Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. The escalation in Middle Eastern tensions rattled risk appetite, boosting both the US dollar and gold. The dollar index rebounded from multi-year lows, rising back above the 98.0 mark.
While Thursday’s US Treasury auction drew solid demand, offering some initial relief, bond markets reversed course today. Yields rose across the curve as concerns mounted that further instability in the region could lift oil prices and reignite inflation, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. The 10-year yield increased above 4.4% while the 30-year yield traded around 4.9%. The White House sought to distance itself from the Israeli strikes, emphasising that the United States had no role in the operation.

Base Metals

Base metals opened on the back foot today, pressures by a sharp rebound in the US dollar, which surged back above the 98.00 level. The stronger dollar triggered a broad-based selloff across the complex, initially wiping out this week’s gains. However, sentiment stabilised later in the session, allowing for a moderate recovery as metals broadly returned to their recent trading ranges.

Aluminium saw notable volatility, breaking below the key $2,500/t support level before rebounding to close just above this level at $2,503/t. Copper also tested lower levels, briefly dipping to $9,530/t before recovering to close at $9,645/t. Meanwhile, lead and nickel remained relatively steady, holding firm at $1,990.50/t and $15,128/t, respectively.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold surged through the $3,400/oz mark, climbing to $3,438/oz at the time of writing and approaching all-time highs, driven by geopolitical risk. Silver edged slightly lower but held above key support at $36.00/oz. Oil prices moved firmly higher, with WTI and Brent last seen at $71.8/bbl and $73.3/bbl respectively, as the conflict fuelled supply concerns.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 13062025

All price data is from 23.06.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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