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Daily Base Metals Report

Geopolitical Shock Fails to Move Markets

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • Market focus shifts to central bank meetings as Fed, BoJ, and BoE prepare to deliver guidance
  • Geopolitical and dollar volatility failed to push base metals prices out of their current ranges, underscoring a lack of speculative interest in the market. 
  • Gold retreats from record highs while oil prices soften

Macro

US equities opened higher on Monday, partially recovering from Friday’s sell-off as markets stabilised following a brief spike in volatility. The initial turbulence driven by geopolitical risk appears to have faded for now, with broader sentiment reverting to last week’s range-bound dynamics. The dollar index extended its decline, slipping below the 97.0 level, while the 10-year US Treasury yield held firm above 4.4%.

Attention now turns to a pivotal week for monetary policy, with the Fed, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England all set to deliver rate decisions. While no changes are expected from any of the three, investor focus will centre on accompanying statements for forward guidance. Markets continue to price in two Fed rate cuts before year-end, though uncertainty remains high amid shifting inflation and growth signals.

Base Metals

Base metals began this week on a subdued note once again, as geopolitical uncertainty and dollar fluctuations failed to push prices out of their current ranges. Low open interest and muted volatility continue to highlight the lack of speculative interest in the market. Copper remained capped by the $9,700/t resistance level, closing just above it at $9,703/t. Aluminium held above the $2,500/t mark but failed to break significantly higher, holding at $2,513.50/t. Nickel retested the $15,000/t support level, as lead jumped higher, breaking above the critical $2,000/t resistance level to $2,007.50/t; the next robust level on the upside is $2,009/t, and a break above this level could indicate a change in lead’s long-term momentum.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold pulled back from Friday’s record highs, slipping below $3,400/oz. Silver was little changed, holding steady at $36.30/oz. Oil prices drifted lower, with WTI trading around $70.00/bbl and Brent last seen at $71.40/bbl.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 16062025

All price data is from 16.06.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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