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Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

-    Japanese inflation climbs, keeping BoJ policy under scrutiny.
-    UK retail sales slump, pointing to fading consumer momentum.
-    Gold steady, silver slips, and oil eases in low-volume session.

Macro:
US equities opened lower on Friday, as trading resumed following the Juneteenth holiday. With little fresh US data, broader market activity remained subdued. The dollar index hovered just below 99.0, while the 10-year US Treasury yield held near 4.4%.
In Japan, core CPI rose 3.7% YoY in May, slightly above expectations. This marks the highest annual rate in over two years and underscores the Bank of Japan’s ongoing dilemma as it seeks to balance persistent food inflation with growing pressure from US trade tariffs. While inflation remains above the BoJ's 2% target, uncertainty around global growth continues to cloud the policy outlook.
Meanwhile, UK retail sales contracted by 1.2% MoM in May, posting their sharpest monthly decline since December 2023. The data followed a surge in April driven by seasonal purchases and home spending and confirms a broader downtrend in consumer activity. Sterling weakened modestly on the release, as the Office for National Statistics also reported a larger-than-expected public borrowing figure of £17.7b for May.

Base Metals:
Base metals were mixed in light trade, with few fresh catalysts to drive conviction. Aluminium firmed to $2,546/t, continuing its slow recovery. Copper edged higher to $9,647/t, though remained below key resistance levels. Nickel extended its retreat, falling to $14,985/t and maintaining its downward trajectory. Lead remained soft at $1,989/t, while zinc ticked slightly higher to $2,648.5/t. Tin increased to $32,655/t and breaking back above its recent consolidation range, hinting at fresh upside interest.

Precious Metals and Oil:
Gold held broadly steady, slipping marginally to $3,369.7/oz amid a lack of fresh macro drivers. Silver declined further, dropping below the $36.0/oz threshold. Oil prices softened, with WTI and Brent last seen at $74.9/bbl and $76.7/bbl, respectively.

20062025

All price data is from 20.06.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

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