Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Gain on Fragile Ceasefire

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US equities are approaching their records as markets weigh on ceasefire in the Middle East.
  • Base metals are showing signs of cautious bullish sentiment, with lead paving the way higher. 
  • Gold and oil prices stabilised. 

Macro

US equities opened cautiously higher as all eyes remained on geopolitical developments, which have further boosted market confidence. The S&P 500 is approaching 6100, a level not seen since before Donald Trump’s inauguration, and is edging closer to a record high. NATO leaders today backed a plan to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, a move strongly supported by President Trump. The new target includes 3.5% for core defence expenditures and an additional 1.5% allocated to related investments such as infrastructure and cybersecurity. At the same time, ongoing pressures from Trump to reach a resolution in the Middle East are also helping to ease geopolitical pressures, supporting the risk-on sentiment. 

This comes at a time when countries are scrambling to finalise trade deals ahead of the July 9th deadline, when the US is expected to reinstate the reciprocal tariffs first introduced during the “Liberation Day” in April. We do not anticipate that many of these deals will reach their final stages before the deadline, which could force the Trump administration to compromise by extending negotiations beyond the deadline.

From a macroeconomic perspective, markets will pay close attention to Fed Powell’s testimony later today, especially after the release of softer consumer data yesterday. We expect policymakers will continue to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach, especially as the tariff deadline draws near. The dollar index fluctuated around the 98.00 mark, as the 10-year US Treasury yield bounced back above the 4.30% mark. 

Base Metals

Base metals are showing signs of cautious bullish sentiment across the complex today. Lead is paving the way, surging to $2,040/t after breaking through a robust resistance of $2,020/t that has capped prices since March 2025. A breach of $2,050/t could indicate further gains, with the next significant resistance at $2,100/t. Zinc followed suit, cautiously trading above the $2,700/t level at $2,704.50/t, although the resistance of $2,730/t is holding firmly. Copper was also seen testing the $9,700/t level, while aluminium is trading in a new $2,550-2,600/t range.  

Precious Metals and Oil

WTI and Brent oil prices stabilised today, holding above $65/bbl and $68/bbl, respectively, following the two-day plunge as markets evaluate the prospects of a ceasefire. Gold prices also steadied, holding above the $3,300/oz mark, with investors weighing on developments in the Middle East and a stronger case for interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Despite the strengthening risk-on sentiment in equities, gold’s performance suggests that both speculative and institutional investors are maintaining their positions. With markets remaining cautious around the US dollar, safe-haven demand for gold persists. This suggests that markets continue to hedge against lingering uncertainty, whether from the Trump administration or broader geopolitical developments.  Silver held steady at $35.97/oz.

All price data is from 25.06.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields