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Daily Base Metals Report

Mixed Start to H2 as Copper Climbs and Macro Signals Diverge

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

- US stocks diverged after recent highs
- Copper rallied toward $10,000/t
- Gold extended rebound, oil prices edged higher

Macro:

US equities opened mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones extending gains toward all-time highs, while the S&P and NASDAQ pulled back slightly after hitting record levels yesterday. The final round of PMI data offered a largely stable picture of global manufacturing conditions. In Japan, the June Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.0 from the preliminary 50.4, still signalling mild expansion. In the eurozone, the final PMI rose slightly to 49.5, lifted by improved prints from France and Spain. Inflation data also pointed to stabilisation, with the flash estimate for headline CPI at 2.0% YoY and core CPI unchanged at 2.3% — suggesting the ECB can stay on its current easing trajectory. The UK manufacturing PMI held steady at 47.7, while in the US, a sharp upward revision to the June manufacturing PMI took the final figure to 52.9, pointing to firmer domestic momentum. The dollar index firmed slightly, recovering from its recent lows to trade just below 97.0, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose back to 4.26% after briefly testing the 4.20% level earlier in the session.

Base Metals:

Base metals began the second half of the year on a firmer note, with sentiment supported by continued technical momentum. Copper extended its rally, climbing to $9,973/t and testing the key $10,000/t threshold for the first time since late May. Aluminium also gained, pushing up to $2,614.5/t as it continues to grind through overhead resistance. Nickel rose for a third consecutive session, reaching $15,185/t and confirming a near-term base above $15,000/t. Lead was unchanged at $2,045/t, holding steady after recent gains. Tin edged higher to $33,750/t, maintaining a gradual recovery from mid-June lows, while zinc reversed sharply, falling to $2,728/t after failing to break above recent highs — suggesting profit-taking at the top of its recent range.

Precious Metals and Oil:

Gold extended its rebound, trading at $3,344/oz as softer dollar sentiment and steady yields continued to support demand. Silver also held firm above recent levels, last seen at $36.20/oz. Oil prices rose slightly on the day, with WTI at $65.30/bbl and Brent at $66.80/bbl, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and summer demand expectations.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 01072025

All price data is from 01.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

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