Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Jobs Surprise Fuels Risk-On Rally

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US jobs data reduced Fed cut bets.
  • Base metals were mixed today, with a stronger dollar capping the upside. 
  • Gold dipped, silver steady.

Macro

US stocks opened higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 reaching fresh record highs. The latest non-farm payrolls report surprised to the upside, showing an increase of 147k jobs in June, compared to an upwardly revised 144k in May. The unemployment rate also moved against expectations, declining to 4.1%. This stronger-than-expected labour market data prompted a sharp repricing of interest rate expectations. Whereas forward swaps had previously implied more than a 90% probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in September, this fell to below 70% following the release. The dollar strengthened in response, lifting the dollar index to 97.4, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.33%.

The resilience of today’s official labour market data stood in contrast to yesterday’s ADP private payrolls figures, which had indicated a decline of 33k jobs. The divergence can largely be attributed to methodological differences. ADP covers only private-sector employment and often exhibits short-term volatility that does not fully capture broader labour market dynamics.

Elsewhere, final S&P Global Services PMIs for June pointed to steady expansion across all major regions. Readings in Japan, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States remained comfortably in growth territory, offering reassurance that service sector activity is holding up despite global uncertainty.

Base Metals 

Mixed performance was seen across the base metals complex today, with a stronger dollar putting some pressure on prices. Copper struggled to hold above the $10,000/t mark, resulting in marginal softness back to $9,954.50/t. Likewise, aluminium gave up yesterday’s gains, falling to $2,605/t. In contrast, lead continued to pare new gains after breaching the $2,050/t resistance level, strengthening further to $2,064/t, while nickel edged higher to $15,451/t.

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold came under renewed pressure amid rising yields and a firmer dollar, slipping to $3,326/oz. Silver, however, remained resilient, trading above $36.60/oz as investor demand held firm. Oil prices were broadly unchanged, with WTI near $67.00/bbl and Brent around $68.70/bbl at the time of writing.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 03072025

All price data is from 03.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields