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Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Research Associate

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US markets closed for Independence Day, but fiscal concerns linger.
  • Base metals weakened as the risk-on momentum faded into the week end.
  • Gold and silver held steady, while oil drifted lower in subdued trade.

Macro

With US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, attention turned to Europe, where equity indices were mixed in thin trading. The dollar index, which had spiked on Thursday following stronger-than-expected jobs data, failed to hold above the 97.0 level and eased slightly. The euro regained ground, ending a two-day losing streak and firming modestly against the dollar. Meanwhile, investors continued to digest the broader implications of Trump’s newly passed tax and spending package, the so-called "Big Beautiful Bill", which is expected to inject substantial fiscal stimulus but may also add more than $3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, intensifying concerns around long-term debt sustainability and elevated Treasury issuance.

Base Metals

Base metals showed strength earlier in the week, supported by ongoing physical copper tightness and a weaker dollar, which helped bolster a risk-on sentiment across the complex. While a moderate price correction occurred by the end of the week due to the strengthening dollar, the underlying speculative trend indicates a growing appetite for upside potential. This could encourage metals to continue cautiously gaining momentum in the near term, with technical resistance levels providing key points from which prices can determine their direction.

Meanwhile, prices softened, with aluminium and copper dropping to $2,590/t and $9,864.50/t, respectively. Lead held its nerve, as it hovered above the $2,050/t mark, as zinc edged lower to $2,724/t. Nickel also weakened to $15,290/t. 

Precious metals and Oil

Gold was little changed, hovering near $3,333/oz. Stochastics around 33% suggest the metal is recovering from oversold conditions, though the recent flattening points to a pause in upside momentum for now. Silver also moved marginally higher, edging closer to $36.90/oz. Notably, silver stochastics have remained in overbought territory for much of the month but are now slipping below 70, hinting at a possible cooling in momentum. Oil prices drifted lower in quiet trade, with WTI last seen at $66.30/bbl and Brent at $68.10/bbl.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 04072025

All price data is from 04.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

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