Client Portal
  1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Daily Base Metals Report

Markets Weigh Brazil, Copper Tariffs

Read disclaimer

Back to reports

Authors
Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

Viktoria Kuszak

Viktoria Kuszak Senior Research Analyst

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

Summary

  • US equity strength benefits from gains in mining stocks.
  • Base metals strengthen as copper tariffs are confirmed to take effect in a couple of weeks.
  • Precious metals hold steady as markets digest tariff news.

Macro

US stocks remained elevated as European stocks continued to rally, driven by risk-on buying in mining shares. The gains were supported by the announcement of copper tariffs, effective August 1st, along with indications that China is aiming to reduce domestic overcapacity. Additionally, the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, causing the Brazilian real to tumble to 5.58 against the dollar. While overall sensitivity to tariffs remains moderate, specific commodities and assets from targeted countries are experiencing pockets of volatility.

From the macroeconomic perspective, initial jobless claims weakened for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two-month low of 227,000 in the week ending July 5th, further underscoring labour market strength. Overall, the robust US economic outlook suggests the country is positioned to maintain steady interest rates in the near term. The dollar index edged higher to 97.7 and the 10-year US Treasury yield held above the 4.355 mark. 

Base Metals 

On the LME, copper continued to gain momentum following President Trump's confirmation of a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective August 1st. As a result, the price difference between COMEX and LME remains wide at 27%, indicating that markets have adjusted their pricing expectations but are not yet fully convinced of the 50% rate being implemented. Companies have limited time to ship copper to US warehouses, something that typically takes 2-3 weeks. This means the arbitrage is likely to remain wide for the next couple of months unless there are changes to the tariff rate that could lead to repricing on COMEX. It is also important to monitor potential exemptions from specific countries such as Chile, Canada, and Mexico, which are responsible for 90% of copper shipments to the US, with Chile supplying 70% of these imports.

Meanwhile, copper has recovered from Tuesday's volatility, strengthening back to $9,703/t. Aluminium bounced back above the $2,600/t level to $2,608/t. Lead held its nerve at $2,040/t, and zinc strengthened to $2,780/t. 

Precious Metals and Oil

Gold and silver remained elevated at $3,315/oz and $36/80/oz, respectively. Oil prices weakened as markets assessed the impact of tariffs, prompting WTI and Brent to soften to $66/bbl and $68/bbl, respectively.

All price data is from 10.07.2025 as of 17:30

Disclaimer

This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.

Subscribe

Select all the reports you wish to sign up for and submit your details below

Thank you for subscribing.

You should receive a confirmation email shortly. Please check your spam /junk mail folder if not received within a few minutes.

Do not forget to click the link in the confirmation message, otherwise, you will not receive any of our future emails.

This field is required
This field is required
This field is required
This field is required

Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.

(Please note that we cannot email subscribers in the European Economic Area (EEA) or Switzerland, except for journalists.)
You must agree to our terms and conditions before submitting the form
* Mandatory fields